Tag Archive for: Climate Prediction Center

seniorsskiing

This Week In SeniorsSkiing.com (Sep. 21)

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Snow Is Happening Now, Winter Weather Prediction, Portillo Report, XC Binding News.

So it begins.  There’s snow in British Columbia, some parts of Washington, Idaho, and Montana. Check out the very recent snow map above from Snow-Forecast.com.  The green represents snow; it’s not very much accumulation, —though we did hear Banff got blasted just today—but it’s there. Someone please ring a bell or something.

Sundeck at The Remarkables, Queenstown, New Zealand’s famous resort. Big snow happening there this summer. Credit: Snowbrains.com

And, we have heard that four resorts in New Zealand’s South Island have been forced to close because of too much snow this week. That reminds us of the snow-heavy winter we had in 2015-16 when the California Sierras were inundated. Such is the nature of climate change.  Go to Snowbrains.com for the story on how epic snow closed the mountains in En-Zed. 

Free (or Almost Free) Skiing For Seniors Listing Almost Ready.

This week, we are getting back into full swing here at SeniorsSkiing.com. Our correspondents are sending in early season stories which you should be seeing in a week or two. We have completed our research on where seniors can ski for free (or almost free) at ski resorts in North America.  Yes, indeed, we are including Canadian resorts this year in our listing.  It’s amazing how many resorts there are that do offer a significant break for seniors. Those discounts are out there; you have to look.  We know our annual listing will certainly help.

We’re busy designing the Free Ski list and getting it ready for publication.  Stay tuned.  Until then, you can still access last year’s listing under Subscriber Only Content. 

This Week

The Woolly Bear knows what winter will bring. Credit: TheInfiniteSpide

We’ve been paying perhaps too much attention to the winter weather forecasts this time around. That ol’ El Nino seems to be hanging in there, and if it does, it will definitely play a role in what happens in snow country. So, just to corroborate what we’re been hearing from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, we branched off to collect some tradition folk nostrums of what winter will be.  Find out what the old-timers looked to around this time of year to predict how much snow was in store for winter.  We also checked the annual Farmers Almanac prediction.  Read all about it.

Chile-based correspondent Casey Earle continues his series on skiing in Chile. He wrote some great articles orienting folks to what to expect down there and a recap of some of the principal resorts. This time, he zones in on Portillo, the venerable Chilean resort every skier knows about. Check out his resort review here.

Filled with amenities Hotel Portillo is the only place to stay at the resort. Credit: ChileSki.com

Cross-country editor and XCSkiResorts.com publisher Roger Lohr brings us some breaking news on the xc ski binding front. He describes the brand new Rottefella binding with a Move Switch that allows you to adjust the weight distribution on your skis. This could be an important break thru for senior xc skiers because it can actually enhance both glide and grip.  Certainly worth a look if you are thinking about new xc gear.

On a more serious note, we have a new article on Sarcopenia this week, a condition where muscles become less efficient in seniors. We found it remarkable that we never knew about this condition until we were introduced to it through a contributed article by one of our readers last year.  If we didn’t know, then probably a lot of our readers don’t either.  Study this one, dear readers.  The good news is that the weakening effects of sarcopenia can be mitigated through weight lift training.

If you have any story ideas, or want to submit an article, please let us know at info@seniorsskiing.com.  The season has started, and it is time to get ready.

Remember, readers, there are more of us every day and we aren’t going away.

 

 

 

mikemaginn

Winter Weather Forecasting: From Caterpillars To El Nino

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What Will The Winter Weather Be? There Are Many Ways Of Telling, So Place Your Bets.

The Woolly Bear knows what winter will bring. Credit: The Infinite Spider

We grew up with several folk rules about forecasting the winter weather.  Most people know about the width of the bands of Woolly Bear caterpillars and the increased frenzy of squirrels gathering nuts and stowing them away. But did you also know that folklore points to other, more subtle indicators that certainly must have some validity from the test of time.

Have you noticed the following having a correlation with deep, cold, snow winters? [Thanks to the Farmer’s Almanac for pointing these out.]

  • Heavy fogs in August
  • Two or more woodpeckers on the same tree
  • Mice chewing doorways into a house
  • Really big spider webs
  • Pigs collecting sticks (!)
  • Acorns galore
  • Thicker coat on your dog

And many more.  We suppose that if all these indicators appear in parallel, then winter will be a big one. Now that would be an interesting dissertation in Meteorology.

However much fun it is to tell your grandchildren that the wiggly caterpillar climbing the backyard tree with a big, thick, orange band is a sign of snow to come, we also prefer to keep an eye on the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center.  Granted, a forecast is subject to being wrong, but, in the grand scheme of things, it certainly is worth consideration, especially if you are planning winter activities.

The CPC has recently issued its prediction for winter conditions for January, February, March 2019, the core of the snow season for most folks. As we have pointed out earlier, this winter will be influenced by a weak-moderate El Nino that is showing up as warm water in the eastern Pacific. Below are two graphics that reflect the forecast for Jan-March 2019, one reflects Temperature, the other Precipitation.  The colored areas reflect the probability of variance from “average”, that is, the historic amounts of rainfall and temperature recorded over the year.  So, some areas can be “EC” for “Equal Chance”, of being above, normal, or below average, or, in other words, a toss-up.  “A” is a predicted probable variance  “Above”, “B” is “Below”, and “N” is “Normal” or historic average.

You can see at a glance that temperature predictions are forecasting above average temps in the Northwest and extending across a swath of the northern tier of the country. And, the Precipitation map shows above average for the southern tier with a toss-up for a middle band across the country, and pockets of below average precip in the Northwest and Midwest. Put the data from the two maps together, and you get the official NWS prediction for winter: Warmish and toss-up wet in the middle swath of the country, toss-up temps but above average wetness across the south.

Just remember, this is a prediction about what the weather will be four-six months from now and treat it as such. Incidentally, you may want to compare these forecasts with the venerable Farmer’s Almanac’s Official Winter Weather prediction. Alas, The Farmer’s Almanac’s secret forecast formula is calling for “More Rain, Less Snow.”

So, the stakes are set on the table; let’s see how the dice rolls.

Two woodpeckers in a tree means snowy, cold winter, or so they say. Credit: Dreamstime.com

 

 

 

 

seniorsskiing

This Week In SeniorsSkiing.com (July 15)

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Breaking News, Weather Prediction, Super Video, Road Trip.

In a La Nina year, the jet stream typically gets bent south, bringing cold air to southern Canada/nothern US. Credit: NOAA/NWS

Credit: NOAA/NWS

Breaking News:  The terminal foundation at the top of Sunday River’s Spruce Peak chairlift has collapsed, leaving the bull wheel, cable and chairs in disarray.  This disturbing incident is being investigated by state officials and Sunday River engineers. At presstime, the cause is a mystery as is the future of this ski lift.

In more pleasant news, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center is releasing information about La Nina conditions in the central and eastern Pacific ocean.  We know what El Nino did to snow in the East and West last season.  Find out what is predicted for next year when La Nina’s impact hits North America.

Heli-Skiing in the Canadian Rockies: A peak skiiing experience. Credit: CMH

Heli-Skiing in the Canadian Rockies: A peak skiiing experience.
Credit: CMH

We couldn’t resist posting a really spectacular video from CMH Heli Skiing, a scion of Han Gmoser’s original heli-skiing business.  The views of carving through powder in the high Canadian Rockies are worth a look, especially in these hazy, hot, humid summer days.

Finally, co-publisher Jon Weisberg relates an exciting road trip to the so-called Four Corners area in southwestern Utah. Indian runes, landscape and history are all part of the experience.

In the coming weeks, we’ll be announcing the names of SeniorsSkiing.com’s Trail Masters.  These are the readers who responded to our Spring Subscriber Survey 2016 and who have skied more days than their age. It’s quite a list, and we are very proud of their achievement.

TrailMasterImage_Thanks for reading SeniorsSkiing.com.  If you haven’t taken advantage of our SeniorsSkiing.com Promotive discount for top-brand gear and clothing, please check it out. You guys wanted deals, and we got them for you.

And remember, there are more of us every day, and we aren’t going away.