Tag Archive for: Climate Change

This Week In SeniorsSkiing.com (March 1)

[Editor Note: We thank each reader who offered a donation to help us defray expenses. We are extremely grateful and humbled.  We are preparing mailings to our contributors that will begin to go out next week. Thank you so much.]


Something Happening Here, Early Colorado Ski Jumping, Resort Reviews: Wolf Creek, E-Bike Italy, NSAA Meeting Report.

Perhaps you’ve seen this picture of Lake Tahoe’s cumulative snow this season. Awesome, wow.
Credit: Active NorCal

Indeed, something is happening here on Earth that is auspicious and perhaps foreboding. This past week, we have seen consistent and massive snowfalls in the Sierra. We’re talking five feet plus per storm with more coming in from the “atmospheric river” in the Pacific almost weekly.  Ski resorts have been closed, the National Weather Service has “highly discouraged” travel in the mountains.

Something you don’t see every season. Credit: National Weather Service

Meanwhile, there are parts of the Rockies that are getting more than their share.

Credit: Joe Durzo

Back in the East, snow depth levels haven’t quite kept pace with what we’re seeing in the West. But, wait a minute, we’re looking at wind speeds on Mt. Washington, NH, that are astonishing.  Here’s what is called a Hays Chart of wind speeds at the top for the month of February. There were gusts of up to 171 mph, reaching a new all-time peak for the month of February. Winds averaged 110 mph over the day on Feb. 25th with the highest 0ne-hour average of 138 mph.

Big winds on Mt. Washington. Credit: National Weather Servife

And yet, in Merry England, this week has brought record warm temperatures.  Hampton Water Works in Southwest London went to 20.1 C (68.8 F).

We could go on.  Australia is burning up, droughts in the western Pacific. Super-typhoons, etc.

We know that weather isn’t climate.  And that while this amount of snow is incredibly good news for ski resorts and the whole winter sports industry, we are looking at these extremes as likely symptoms of the greater climate change scenario unfolding across the globe.  Put these incidents and others together, and it has become clearer how the climate has changed and will change, that we are entering a new era, and that we have to be aware that every action we can take to abate these changes is not only necessary but vital.

A recent report from the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory is explicit. The following is from a Reuters news story.

“Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals,” the U.S.-led team wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change of satellite measurements of rising temperatures over the past 40 years.

They said confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth’s surface had reached a “five-sigma” level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming.

The good news is that the snow sports industry and some resorts are embracing sustainable energy, creating awareness, and rallying around organizations like Protect Our Winters.

This Week

We hear a report from SeniorsSkiing.com correspondent Marc Liebman about his presentations and insights about  plans to capture senior skiers at the recent NSAA winter meetings.

Our Mystery Glimpse photo this week may be a familiar ski hero to some. Can you guess who he is? Meanwhile, we reveal who our duo ski jumpers were and where they jumped.

We also have a resort review from correspondent John Nelson, on Wolf Creek, CO. From his description, it is the almost perfect senior-friendly resort.

And co-publisher Jon Weisberg writes on e-biking in Umbria and Tuscany available from our advertiser Inspired Italy. Sounds like high-summer fun.

Once again, thank you for your support. And tell your friends, there are more of us every day and we aren’t going away.

Stickers, Patches, and Hats Will Begin Being Sent To Donors Next Week.  Thanks For Your Support.

2016-17 Winter Forecast Outcome

How Close Were NOAA Predictions? The Surprise Was California.

Temperature: Forecast vs Actual, 2016-17
Credit: NOAA

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently published a review of its forecast for the 2016-17 winter.  As you know from horse racing, the stock market and Las Vegas, predictions often do not reflect realities.  The question really is how close to reality the predictions are.

In October, 2016, the Winter Weather prediction was focused on factoring in a weak La Nina pattern in the Pacific.  La Nina and sibling El Nino, as you may be aware, are warm or cool water conditions roughly in the latitude of Peru in the eastern ocean.  These conditions impact the air masses above them and, subsequently, the jet stream which steers weather patterns in the atmosphere.

Climate Prediction Center thought a La Nina (cooler water) would bring generally warmer temps across the lower US and cooler in the Pacific Northwest, Upper Midwest and Ontario. For precipitation, the prediction was below normal precip across the southern US, continuing the drought situation there, and above average precip in the upper band across the US-Canada border.

In reality, the La Nina was weaker and faded away earlier than predicted. That factor plus multiple “Atmospheric River Events” off the California coast, narrow regions of heavy moisture transported from the tropics, and general randomness brought different outcomes.

Temperatures across the US in the 2016-17 winter were the warmest ever recorded. That was in line with the prediction for warmer temps across the whole country. But it was colder than average in the Pacific North West rather than the Northern Plains.  And, while precipitation for wetter than average in the Northern Tier was spot on, the forecast for drier than average only worked out for Florida, where drought conditions persist.

As we know, it was wetter than average in California with ongoing storms racing up from the Pacific. Not predicted.

In general, Climate Prediction Center’s own objective evaluation of its predictions show it was much more accurate for the temperatures this year than precipitation.

We will be bring you predictions for the 2017-18 Winter when they emerge.

Precipitation: Forecast vs Actual 2016-17
Credit: NOAA

 

New England Ski Industry And Climate Change

The Facts Are Tough To Face, But The Ski Season In New England Is Getting Shorter.

Spring Skiing 2016, somewhere in New England.
Credit: Mike Maginn

This story comes via the New England News Collaborative, and was first published by Maine PublicIt aired on WBUR Boston, March 15, 2017.

Two years ago during the infamous 2014-15 season, there was enough snow, it seemed, in New England to cover Mt. Washington many times over.  The 2015-16 season was the opposite; we were lucky to get a string of decent days and many resorts closed early.  This season, it was on-again, off-again, with an on-again storm at the beginning of March that will definitely extend the season.

This up-down trend is part of a bigger picture that is reported here in a WBUR Boston NPR Radio segment that we are passing along.  Although the tone is frank and a bit foreboding, the entrepreneurial spirit of mountain business people is encouraging, especially when they talk about plans for the dealing with what’s coming.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO THE SEGMENT OR TO READ THE TRANSCIPT.  It’s about five and a half minutes long, or you can read a transcript in the link.

What do you think? Will summer activities on mountains run by ski resorts be viable business alternative and money maker?