Tag Archive for: Skiing Weatherman

Skiing Weatherman: West Still Strong, East Hanging In

April 8, 2021/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Some Powder. Trail Counts Good.

The weather pattern that dominated the month of March in the eastern half of the country has continued right into April…unfortunately. I communicated with a resort manager in Vermont last week and found out that the mountain, which has a high base elevation…had received exactly one inch of snow last month. One %#$$@*& inch! A good number of areas pulled the plug after offering skiing during the Easter weekend as the lack of snow and late month rain beat down the base depths to the point where skiing and riding couldn’t be extended any further.

Going forward, I wish I could tell you that some late snow was on the way to sustain the sliding for several more weeks, but that is simply not the case. The strong ridge at the jet stream level that took shape a couple of weeks ago over northeastern Canada is still there, and a piece of that ridge has extended into the northeastern U.S. the past week, leading to temperatures that continued the shrinking of the snow supply. While it will be turning cooler in the East relative to normal for the last two weeks of this month, it looks like “too little, too late.” Lastly, base depths never got overly deep during the heart of winter, then the snow drought hit in March, and right now, we are left with a dwindling supply on the slopes. So, in the East, get it while you can. Grab the rock skis, bring the sunscreen and the tailgate gear and have a go at it. This weekend there will be about 20 resorts to choose from in the East and trail counts are still pretty healthy.

In the West, the spring skiing season is also underway with the resorts sitting on much more in the way of “money in the bank.” That is, ample snowfall through the season has built up the base depths to an extent that skiing and riding can easily continue for several more weeks. Keep in mind that a good number of resorts will be closing, or have already closed, because their deals with the National Forest Service say they must, regardless of how much snow is still on the hill. But overall, the season still has plenty of legs throughout the West. In this region, there is actually hope for a little more in the way of snow. Here’s a map of the snowfall for the next couple of weeks.

It’s not a ton of snow, but if you time it right you might be able to squeeze in a few more powder turns before calling it quits for the season. British Columbia has been the big winner in terms of snowfall this season, which is to be expected during a La Nina winter, and they are in line for a dump or two, or more, in the coming weeks. Unfortunately, a Covid resurgence has caused many of the resorts in that province to close for the season.

The turns are out there if you really want them, but you might have to work a little harder to make them.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

Late week snow will set up one more weekend of winter surfaces.

Central and southern Sierra:

Perfect spring skiing weather coming up for the next week. Sunny, mild days and overnight lows below freezing to preserve and set up the snow.

Rockies:

Mild days, chilly nights, and any precip in the next week will be light.

Midwest:

Lutsen, Minnesota appears to be the only resort still operating. Light rain and snow most days next week.

Northeast:

Warm pattern turns cooler late next week and beyond. Better hustle to get those turns in.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

The party is over.

Skiing Weatherman: West Strong, Last Call East

March 25, 2021/2 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Bluebird Days. Light Snow.

The weather pattern hasn’t changed much in the past week as the jet stream set-up has continued to feature a cold trough over the western half of the country and a milder to warm ridge over the eastern half. It has been another snowy week in the West, although amounts of fresh snow have been a little less than the prior week. In the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast it has been a warm week, and both base snow and trail counts have taken a hit. Changes in the pattern are underway, however, as low pressure centers that get ejected out of the western trough head northeast and mount an attack on the ridge. The ridge is formidable though, and it won’t back down without a fight. It will take three surface storms to knock down the ridge enough to cool the atmosphere sufficiently for snow to fall instead of rain. That third storm will impact the Northeast later this weekend and into next week and could possible represent the final opportunity for significant snowfall, as the pattern will shift to a warmer regime right after Easter. Here is a look at a snowfall forecast through Tuesday morning.

You’ll notice that New Hampshire and Maine look like the big winners. That is because one low pressure center will move through Ontario as it weakens with a secondary low center taking shape over Cape Cod before it moves through the Gulf of Maine, strengthening as it does. That track will most benefit the White Mountains and the resorts of Maine. After picking up very little snow in the past three weeks, and with Easter weekend on the horizon, a healthy shot of snow would help sustain quality skiing and riding through the holiday. Some light snow will accompany the passage of another trough and cold front on Good Friday and that will help refresh the surfaces, as well.

In the West, the persistent trough will produce its final shot of snow late this week (especially in CO and WY) setting the stage for a wonderful weekend with bluebird skies dominating as the trough swings out of the region and into the center of the country. A new trough will arrive next week, however, bringing early week snow to the Northwest and midweek powder to the full length of the Rockies. Here is a snowfall forecast through Friday for the West.

The amounts you see are pretty much split between the end of this week and the week of the 29^th.

Many of the resorts in the Midwest have closed, but the larger areas are still open. Some light snow amounts will fall across the northern Great Lakes later this weekend. In the Southeast, about a half dozen resorts are still operating, thanks to high base elevations and aggressive snowmaking through the season. That snow can’t hold on much longer against the strength of Old Sol, though.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

Beautiful weekend on the slopes. Light to moderate fresh snow early next week keeps the powder party going.

Central and Southern Sierra:

Great spring skiing this weekend. Back door cold front turns it a little colder next week, but no significant snow in sight.

Rockies:

Sunny weekend on the slopes. New trough delivers light to moderate snow from MT to NM first half of next week. Light snow next weekend in northern resorts.

Midwest:

Light snow across the far north this weekend. Mild start/colder finish next week with another round of light snow.

Northeast:

Spring conditions rule after mild, damp week. Opportunity for meaningful snow late this weekend/early next week in northern NY and northern New England. Another round of light snow late week.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

Great spring skiing Saturday (3/27). Colder air mass arrives later Sunday. Spring skiing continues next week. Call resort before you drive, though.

Skiing Weatherman: Action West, Cool Down East

March 10, 2021/0 Comments/in Home Top Box 2, Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Not Quite Spring Yet. More Snow In The Forecast.

While the resorts in the Midwest and East got a solid taste of spring this week as temperatures soared well above normal for a few days, the winter weather action picked up in the West. A cold trough spun its way down the coast from B.C. to SoCal, depositing wonderful low density snow along the way. The highest totals came from the Sierra, thanks to the left hand turn of the trough, which brought the core of the circulation closer to the coast than it was when it passed by further north. The trough will spin across the southern Rockies this weekend and as it does, moderate snow will fall across the western half of Colorado into Wyoming while a major dump will unfold on the Front Range, including metro Denver, so access to the fresh snow is likely to be disrupted.

Over the Midwest and East, the warmth of this week has taken at least a modest toll on trail counts at most areas, but colder air will return this weekend and potentially set the stage for fresh snow next week. With the return of the cold air, this weekend you should seek out sunny trails in the Northeast, where the surfaces have a chance of softening up.

Next week, another low will move from the Gulf of Alaska toward Oregon and California, and snows will return to the Cascades (Monday) and Sierra (Tuesday). That low will track eastward and blanket the Wasatch and central and southern Rockies by midweek, so the prospects for skiing and riding in the West next week are outstanding.

The pattern is going to be very active going forward, as illustrated by this jet stream map for Monday.

The blue areas are upper level storms (cold) and the orange peaks are ridges (milder). The storm over Kansas is the one that will hit the Front Range this weekend and as it works east, we could see a surface low get pushed through the Mid-Atlantic States with high elevation snow during midweek. You can see the storm on its heels along the west coast. That system will arrive in the eastern half of the country by Friday morning as you can see on this map.

The surface map at the same time looks like this…

From a position over the central Appalachians, the low center will head northeastward. With the clockwise flow around the high over Minnesota helping to push cold air into the path of the storm, there is the potential for significant snow, at least at the higher elevations, over the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast at the end of the week. Beyond that opportunity, the pattern will remain favorable for late season snow events right through the end of the month. This week’s warmup was just a spring mirage.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

Coastal ranges in B.C. get moderate snow this weekend. Oregon snowy early next week. Larger storm late next week extends further inland in B.C. and throughout the WA and OR Cascades.

Central and southern Sierra:

Great weekend after fresh snow…another moderate to heavy event early next week. Rest of next week looks quiet.

Rockies:

Jackpot is Front Range in Colorado this weekend. Another moderate to heavy event unfolds central and southern Rockies Tuesday/Wednesday next week.

Midwest:

Northern MN resorts close this week with fresh snow…rain elsewhere. Colder air arrives this weekend will firm/preserve snow. Snow threat across this region later next week.

Northeast:

“Spring Break” ends Friday. Cold weekend firms up the snow. Pattern looks promising for meaningful snow late next week. Season far from over.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

Colder air comes back this weekend. Higher elevation snow potential early next week…again late in the week.

Skiing Weatherman: Pattern Is Relatively Quiet

March 3, 2021/1 Comment/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Fresh Snow in Cali. Mild Temps Next Week.

Last week’s installment touched upon the fight we usually see in March between lingering cold to the north and advancing spring warmth from the south. The fight usually takes the form of storminess, where it only a matter of whether there is enough cold air in the mix to produce snow instead of that other stuff. And yet here we are in the first week of March with something resembling a mini snow drought over the eastern half of the country. There hasn’t been a significant widespread snowfall in a couple of weeks and aside from northern New York and northern New England, where there have been one or two light snowfalls across in recent days, surfaces have morphed into “machine groomed” or, when temps rise above freezing, “loose granular.” Fear not, though. I hoped that a storm late this week would turn the corner and hit the Northeast, but a cold northwesterly flow has suppressed that idea well to the south. By no means has the East seen its last snowfall, but the next sizable one will come after a turn to milder weather during the week of the 8^th. Here is a forecast for the jet stream level on the 11^th that illustrates the cause of the warm-up.

If you follow the lines around the burnt orange center in a clockwise fashion, you can see that the air mass that flows into locations east of the Mississippi originates over the Southwest, where temperatures are running above normal. At the same time stamp, the following surface map shows a high pressure center off the coast of New England.

Following the lines clockwise around the blue “H” indicates a broad, low level mild southwesterly flow reaching the Great Lakes to New England. So, look for a shift to softer, spring-like surfaces in these areas next week.

The flip side of these ridges at the surface and aloft are the upper troughs and surface low centers that will be moving through the West next week. The air flow is around troughs is counter clockwise, and if you look at the first map and picture the western trough sliding down the coast from Washington to southern California, you can see that a broad onshore flow of moisture will immediately precede the arrival of the center of circulation, which is a great recipe for fresh snow in the Cascades and Sierra ranges. The highest totals will come from central and southern Sierra resorts, where the core of the trough will pass overhead midweek. Farther north it will be offshore. Later next week, the weakening trough will swing through the southern Rockies, where lighter snow will fall but refresh surfaces.

Back to the East. The pattern is progressive, so the warming will be transient. Here is a jet stream forecast for the 15^th that shows a cold trough returning to the Midwest and East.

That setup will help preserve snow and produce fresh snow at times and there are signs that the colder pattern will dominate the second half of the month. More on that next week.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

After a heavy late week dump in B.C., lighter snows fall this weekend in the Cascades. Periodic light snows during the week of the 8th.

Central and southern Sierra:

Fresh snow as well as wind this weekend for Tahoe. Snowy much of the week of the 8^th for all Cali resorts.

Rockies:

Turning colder next week with light to moderate snows across the north. Weakening upper trough brings light midweek snows in southern Rockies.

Midwest:

Seasonably cold weekend and milder next week. Best shot at snow later next week across far northern Minnesota and Michigan.

Northeast:

Cold weekend with temps moderating by midweek. Transition back to colder pattern gets underway next weekend with potential messy storm.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

Midwinter temps this weekend; spring skiing develops next week. Colder air returns week of the 15^th.

Skiing Weatherman: Transition Month Trials

February 25, 2021/2 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Late Season Powder. Rain And Snow.

Although astronomical spring begins with the vernal equinox later in March, “meteorological spring” begins on the first day of March. That’s when the questions start to arise about how long the season is likely to extend. Those questions are more common for resorts over the eastern half of the country, where injections of milder Pacific air have been present at times in the past week, and they will continue to come east at times during the first two weeks of the new month. Surfaces have become more variable, especially on sunny days when trails with full exposure to the sun start to soften up and moisten by midday, thanks to the increasing seasonal output of Old Sol.

Transitional months are the most difficult for forecasters as the battle between warm and cold expands both in area and magnitude. It is still mid-winter cold in Canada, but the South is steadily warming up in spite of what we witnessed in Texas a week or two ago. The contrast in air masses can lead to some blockbuster late season snows but if the low center happens to cut up over the Great Lakes rather than run up the eastern seaboard, some of the early spring warmth from the South can rush northward and deal a nasty body shot to snow conditions. However, back in 2014-2015, three Nor’easters came up the coast and the Northeast got three significant dumps of snow. While it is great to see a late season parade of storms like that, more often than not, the air mass fight leads to more variety in terms of temps and precip types. For the next couple of weeks, the pattern will be quite changeable over the eastern half of the country. With colder air a little harder to find, elevation will play a big role in the snow vs. rain equation.

Overall, the pattern currently does not look like as productive in terms of significant storm threats as what unfolded during February. The best shot at a meaningful snowfall would appear to be at the end of the first week of the new month. Here is a surface map for Friday the 5^th that shows a storm impacting the central and northern Appalachians.

The track is hugging the coast, which would allow enough mild air to spread into the mountains to start the precip as rain. However, as the low tracks northeastward, the rain would change back to snow and a sizable “backside” accumulation could be in the cards, as suggested by this snowfall map for the 5^th and 6^th.

Longer term, I tend to think that the pattern will deliver enough cold air to keep the season going. March in La Nina years tends to favor a continuation of winter across the North and for now I am going to lean on that analog.

In the West, weather worries are minimal, as transient upper level troughs will swing through the region at times and those systems will produce some late season powder days and sustain outstanding conditions.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

The hits just keep on coming. After very heavy snow to end the weak, weaker systems sustain the snowy pattern next week; quieter in OR.

Central and southern Sierra:

Windy weekend for Tahoe and SoCal resorts. Quiet week coming up, best shot at snow next weekend.

Rockies:

Light snow this weekend; ridging leads to quiet week thereafter. Next shot at snow next weekend.

Midwest:

Seasonable weather overall for next week. Passing weak systems produce light snow in northern Great Lakes.

Northeast:

Light mixed precip this weekend. Elevation matters! Early week cold shot, then milder. Potential for sizable late week storm.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

Damp weekend; colder with high elevation snow Monday. Snow potential mid to late week-north. Challenging upcoming week of weather in southern Appalachians.

Skiing Weatherman: Pattern Quiets Down a Bit

February 18, 2021/2 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Warmer end to February. March Snow Looks Good.

This has been an absolutely wild weather week across the country, with more heavy snow in the West, the worst run of cold and snow in the southern Plains since 1899, and two significant storms in the East, although the first one generated a fair amount of sleet earlier this week.

As I discussed last week, in the wake of this week’s arctic plunge, the pattern is changing to one with more Pacific air involved, so we are headed toward an end to February that won’t be as cold as much of the month has been. In terms of the jet stream flow, we will continue to see troughs track across the country and those systems will present us with our shots at fresh snow. The troughs won’t have quite as much cold air to work with, though, so snow levels could become a minor issue and rain/snow lines will work into the equation with storms in the Midwest and East in the next couple of weeks. The historic push of arctic air actually drained a good percentage of the available cold air out of Canada. Yes, it is still plenty cold to the north, but it will take a couple of weeks to build the deep cold that can help sustain the season with a southward push during the month of March. Here’s a map that I haven’t shown before. It is a forecast of the standard deviations of temperatures for the next ten days over Canada.

Notice that the values, whether positive or negative, are overwhelmingly close to neutral. Ten days ago, most of the southern third of Canada, centered over Manitoba and Saskatchewan, had negative values of 5 and 6 standard deviations, consistent with an air mass that was 30+ degrees below normal. That is the air mass that plowed all the way down to south Texas in the past week. Those values will be dropping in the near term, as it is still the heart of winter to the north. The question then becomes whether that air will get involved in the pattern over the U.S. in March, when higher sun angles, rising normal temps, and longer days can start to take their toll on surface conditions and base depths. Right now the prospect for a turn to colder weather looks promising for early March. Not harsh cold, but a little below normal. Again, the final week of this month will be milder over the East, while cold persists in the West, but this map of 5,000 foot temperature anomalies for March 5th shows cold air over the East and an ample supply sitting over Canada for reinforcements. The five thousand foot level is a proxy for surface temps.

So, although the pattern will moderate for the East in the short term, it won’t last long and the prospects for March look good at this point, although a typical La Nina upper ridge could bring the southeastern season to a premature end.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

Snowy pattern carries on. Snow levels rise a bit early next week before settling back down.

Central and southern Sierra:

Light weekend snow, milder during the week of the 22^nd. Pattern cools down and snow opportunities return next weekend.

Rockies:

Pacific flow brings light to moderate snow every day or two Wasatch and Tetons northward. Northwest trajectory brings occasional light snow events central and snow is more scarce until late next week farther south.

Midwest:

A little milder than normal and with a few light snow events in the next week in MN, WI, and northern MI. A great time to hit the slopes, very comfortable.

Northeast:

Not as cold as past few weeks. Weaker Clipper systems bring light mountain snow every few days. Lower elevation resorts see light mixed precip with surfaces softening/moistening somewhat.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

Light mountain snow 22^nd, then milder. Spring surface develops in all but the highest resorts next week.

Skiing Weatherman: Thank You, Stratwarm

February 4, 2021/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Hint: Cold Air Coming Your Way.

[Please consider supporting SeniorsSkiing.com with a donation. We appreciate your help. Click here.]

I assume that this week’s headline has many of you scratching your head wondering “What in the world is a stratwarm?” I will try and explain but the bottom line is that this phenomenon is in large part responsible for the colder than normal pattern that covers much of the country, much to the delight of snow lovers. The past ten days or so have brought fresh snow to just about every resort in the country, and the coming two-three weeks look very promising, as well.

Okay, what is stratwarm? The technical term is Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW), and it is an almost exclusively northern hemispheric winter event that typically occurs in about six out of every 10 years. Unusually warm air develops in the top 10 per cent or so of the atmosphere (the stratosphere) over the high latitudes. The warming works its way down in the atmosphere and then reverses the winds circling the North Pole from westerly to easterly. Those winds weaken as well, which disturbs the polar vortex. If you imagine the strong westerlies around the pole acting as a dam of sorts, keeping the coldest air trapped at the top of the world. When the wind shifts direction and weakens, the dam breaks and cold air heads southward to the mid latitudes. Here is a map of the current temperature anomalies at the 10 millibar level of the atmosphere, right near the top

Notice the orange/brown swatch draped over the North Pole. The warm air is in place and has been for a couple of weeks. Stratwarm episodes take weeks to develop and mature, and this one started in late December. You may have heard that both Europe and China experienced severe cold outbreaks last month as pieces of the vortex broke loose and reached the mid-latitudes. The next thrust of cold is now aimed at Canada and the U.S. It will first move into the northern Plains next week before spreading east-southeastward. Here is a forecast of surface temperature anomalies for Monday, the 8^th

The greens/blues/purples indicate where temps will be below normal, with the core of the coldest air moving into the Dakotas. A week later, the cold has pushed southward to envelope most of the lower 48. Have a look.

Now, cold air doesn’t always lead to snow, but with an upper trough likely to cover much of the same area as the cold mid-month, the likelihood of significant snow events from the Rockies to the east coast will be enhanced. Resorts west of the continental divide and along the west coast will be more influenced by upper ridging over the eastern Pacific, so snow events will be harder to come by, except in the Pacific NW, where a typically snowy La Nina winter will carry on. Stratwarms can cause some uncomfortably cold days on the slopes, but this one will also lead to a cold and snowy February for a majority of the slopes we love.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

Snow this weekend, only B.C./Washington resorts pick up snow next week as west coast ridge builds.

Central and southern Sierra:

Very snowy late January morphs into dry first half of February as new ridge on west coast keeps the flakes away.

Rockies:

Occasional rounds of light snow across the south, somewhat heavier spells of snow central and north from small disturbances embedded in cold northwesterly flow.

Midwest:

Cold shot from the arctic arrives this weekend and dominates for more than a week. Several rounds of light snow during that time.

Northeast:

Light/moderate snow event early next week. Arctic air gradually spreads into region thereafter. Potential for sizable storm around the 15th.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

Higher elevation snow early next week, colder weather follows and dominates through mid-north. Next shot at significant snow around the 15th.

Skiing Weatherman: Mid-Season Update

January 28, 2021/2 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Terrain Opens Coast to Coast

In my mind, the end of January is roughly the mid-point of the season and as we hit that mark, the slopes of North America are in good shape from coast to coast. There are a few spots here and there where trail counts and base depths are lacking a bit, but overall, the very active weather pattern of late has helped resorts in just about every winter sports region. A persistent Pacific trough has absolutely pounded the southern Sierra and Southwest this past week, with the amount of open terrain skyrocketing in the past several days. That trend will continue this weekend, pending avalanche work to ensure skier/rider safety. The parade of storms across the country will continue in the upcoming week, with the northern mid-Atlantic and Northeast in line for a significant snowfall to kick off February. At the same time, another juicy Pacific storm will bring new snow along the full length of the Cascades and Sierras, from Mount Baker, Washington in the north to Mammoth Mountain in California. We will likely have two major winter storms going at the same time, as suggested by this jet stream map outlook for Monday night.

The upper level low centered over Cape May, NJ, will be supporting a surface low that will spin south of New England, a classic Nor’easter track. The orange area over northeastern Canada is a blocking ridge, a feature that will not move out of the way, and that will slow down the progress of the coastal low and result in heavier snow amounts from the central Appalachians into central New England. Heavy snow will fall with the trough off the Pac NW coast on Sunday and Monday, and as the trough pivots east-southeastward, Monday and Tuesday will bring a couple of feet of snow to the southern Sierra. By the end of next week, the western trough will be positioned east of the Rockies, as you can see on this jet stream forecast for the afternoon of Friday the 5^th.

The deep trough over the center of the continent will result in a surface low cutting from the southern Plains through the Great Lakes, which will bring a welcomed snowfall to the northern Lakes, but a messy storm farther east, where the deep southwesterly flow will bring a warmup that will last for several days. Meanwhile, along the west coast, a strong upper ridge will build and help to deliver a cold air mass to the Rockies. The very cold air will also move into the Plains and Midwest in the wake of the passage of the surface low next weekend, and then spread into the East early in the week of the 8^th. By the time we reach the second week of February the overall pattern will be cold pretty much from coast to coast, and I anticipate a favorable pattern for snow and cold to persist through much of the month.

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS:

Pac NW/B.C.:

Early week storm brings another dump…dry and colder pattern develops thereafter.

Central and southern Sierra:

VERY snowy pattern brings another round early in the week. Drier pattern develops later in the week as trough departs.

Rockies:

Light to moderate snow northern resorts middle of next week. Heavy snow central and southern Rockies as core of trough passes through. Colder throughout after the storm.

Midwest:

Cold pattern in place. Western Lakes in line for significant snow later next week…mixed precip central and eastern Lakes. Lake effect snow follows passage of storm.

Northeast:

Cold weekend. Major storm from central Appalachians to central New England Monday/Tuesday. Lighter amounts across the far north. Messy mixed precip event late next week.

Mid-Atlantic/Southeast:

Moderate to heavy snow early next week. Turning milder with late week rain event. Colder thereafter.

Skiing Weatherman: Something For Everone

January 21, 2021/1 Comment/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Snow For All.

Often when I write this piece, I have good news for one region of the country and not-so good news for other areas of ski country. Such is the nature of winter weather across a country that stretches 3,000 miles from coast to coast and with so many and varied climate zones. However, just as there are times in the middle of the summer when much of the country is warmer than normal, occasionally we see a pattern in winter where most or all of the skiing regions get lined up for significant snowfall at roughly the same time. We are entering just such a period.

In order for a favorable pattern to set up for such a large area of the country we obviously need an ample supply of cold air. From mid-December until just recently, most of the air flowing across the country was of Pacific origin, not the prime source region for winter weather. The jet stream configuration now in place is tapping cold air from the northwestern corner of the continent. There is still a risk that we could see an intrusion of severely cold arctic air by the end of the month, but at a minimum, enough cold has showed up to make even southern regions cold enough to be on the lookout for fresh snow. It certainly helps that this is the time of year when normal temps in most areas are right at their climatological minimums for the year. To illustrate the extent of the cold air, here is a look at the forecasted 5,000 foot level for Friday, Jan. 29^th

The area shaded in hues of blue indicate where temps will be below freezing. Sub-freezing temps at that level are a proxy for where the column of air overhead is cold enough to support snow, even the southern Appalachians look sufficiently cold.

The other ingredient for widespread snow is a favorable jet stream configuration. Here is a forecast for the jet stream for late next week that I agree with, showing three key components to a snowy pattern from coast to coast.

The trough along the west coast will produce fresh snow from Alaska down to the southern Sierra, and inland to AZ and NM as well. Storms from the southern end of that trough will traverse the country and bring the opportunity for snow to the central and southern Appalachians. The red ridge over northeastern Canada will remain in place and help keep storms from cutting through the Great Lakes, which would produce rain to the east of the track. Northern disturbances will come out of the Gulf of Alaska, move along the U.S./Canadian border, and produce snow in the Great Lakes and Northeast from time to time. Those systems are often called Alberta Clippers because they typically move through that province. If the impulses in the northern and southern branches of the jet combine forces, the trough off the east coast will be pulled westward and potentially lead to a blockbuster coastal storm for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The potential is high nationwide. Let’s hope the pattern delivers the goods!!!

Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: The trough along the coast produces multiple rounds of meaningful snow over the next couple of weeks. No issues with snow levels due to input of arctic air.

Sierra: Trough extends far enough south to produce a much more active storm pattern to this region.

Rockies: Full length of the mountain range will have frequent snow events into early February.

Midwest: Clipper systems keep coming every two-three days into next month. Each one will produce light snow with backside lake effect, as well.

Mid Atlantic/Southeast: Cold enough for snowmaking; southern storm track could generate natural snow at times.

Northeast/QB: Clipper systems help northern resorts with light snow at times. Ridge over Canada likely to suppress major storm track too much UNLESS two jet branches combine for coastal storm.

Skiing Weatherman: Pattern Change Continues

January 14, 2021/3 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

The Vortex Is Coming.

Last week I discussed a major pattern change that would unfold over North America this month. As we hit the midpoint of January, those changes are well underway. An episode of stratospheric warming over the far northern reaches of the hemisphere has matured in typical fashion, leading to the displacement of the polar vortex away from the North Pole. One chunk of the vortex’ cold air has descended into Asia, with another pushing into Europe, causing a 20 inch snowfall in Madrid! North America is next in line as the jet stream reshapes itself and changes the prime source region of air for the U.S. from the Pacific to the Yukon and Arctic regions. Here is the current jet stream set up…

If you start in the eastern Pacific and head inland you will see that all the way from British Columbia to the Baja, the air flowing onto the continent is of Pacific origin. Maritime air masses can be cold across the far north, but overall, they are not friends of winter sports. Yes, they provide moisture but the relative warmth of the underlying body of water ensures that their chill is limited. This is the configuration that has dominated for several weeks and while the high elevations of the West have been able to convert most of the moisture to snow, further East, each storm of late has been battle for every snowflake. The deep trough that you see over the Midwest on this map has just enough cold air directed into its’ circulation from the north to promise some fresh snow this weekend from the northern Great Lakes eastward to New York and much of New England. Due to the presence of the blocking ridge over Quebec and Labrador, this system will linger into next week, leading to additional accumulations over the mountains of the Northeast.

Next week, a series of additional troughs will spin out of the trough over Alaska, crest the ridge that is building in western Canada, and track southeastward through the Lakes and into the East. One of those systems will split, with one piece continuing southeastward and another piece turning into the Southwest. Each successive disturbance will bring with it increasingly cold air masses. By the time we reach the 23^rd or so, the jet stream pattern will look something like this:

Now, if you start on the peak of the ridge north of Alaska and head south, you will see that the prime source region will be very different, and potentially very cold. With a trough covering much of the country AND with plenty of cold air involved, we will enter a stretch of weather when snows are frequent. The block over northeastern Canada will help to suppress the storm track enough so that the risk of lows that cut through the Great Lakes and bring mixed precip/rain to the Northeast will be limited. With the possible exception of the southern Appalachians, where the ridge over Cuba will push milder air northward, we are heading toward a pattern favorable for snow nationwide. Bring it!

Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Parade of storms resumes late next week as ridge axis eases offshore.

Sierra: West coast ridge keeps it mild and dry for a week. As ridge axis moves offshore, snow prospects improve late month.

Rockies: Northern resorts pick up fresh snow every few days. Fresh snow for central and southern resorts as upper air disturbance settles/develops over region.

Midwest: Pattern turns progressively colder and Clipper systems bring snow every few days. Lake effect snow supplements the Clippers.

Mid Atlantic/Southeast: Northern resorts benefit from colder, snowier pattern. SW Atlantic ridge turns ii milder in southern Appalachians.

Northeast/QB: Weekend storm brings meaningful mountain snow. Pattern turns colder late next week, likely with new snow threat. Great conditions a solid bet by late month.

Skiing Weatherman: Ch-Ch-Ch-Changes

January 7, 2021/5 Comments/in Features, Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

For the title of this piece I chose a line from David Bowie’s classic song. The jet stream pattern that ultimately determines the snowfall haves and the have-nots is undergoing change and, ultimately, it will be dramatic.

As a lifelong skier and weather nerd, my step gets a little lighter and I tend to have a song in my mind when the weather pattern is soon to become more favorable for cold and snow. I’m an Easterner and guilty of a provincial bias. So far, the East is at the short end of the weather stick. Other regions (i.e. Southwest, Wasatch, and Tahoe) also are struggling to attract snow. But much of the East remains significantly below typical trail counts for early January, largely due to the massive Christmas rainstorm.

In my last report, filed a week before Christmas, it looked like the holiday storm could be a major snow producer. Alas, there wasn’t enough cold air available to make that happen, and that has been the case much of the time since. Pacific air has been flowing across the country, leading to heavy snow in the Pacific Northwest, with lighter, but still significant amounts across the northern Rockies. Further downstream, plenty of disturbances have tracked through the Midwest and East, but without cold air from Canada, those disturbances have produced mixed precip events.

So, what is going to change? It’s the jet stream, the hand that moves the pieces on the weather chess board. Here is picture of the current set up…

The red blob over northeastern Canada is a blocking ridge slowly migrating west. It will end up over far northwestern Canada by mid-month, where it will tap a growing supply of cold air. The blue area over the Southeast is a trough that is delivering a late week snowfall to the southern Appalachians. That storm is suppressed by the ridge to the north and until it the ridge moves northwestward, it will be tough for any storm to turn the corner into the Northeast. But I do think that will happen within the next week, and likely several times in the following weeks. Also of note, if you look over the eastern Pacific and follow the lines from west to east, you can see that the prime source of air masses is the Pacific, not the Arctic.

Now take a look at a jet stream forecast for the 18^th, one that I agree with.

The changes are substantial. The ridge is stretched out across the far northern latitudes, with an extension over the northeast Pacific. The clockwise circulation around the ridge will help access cold in the Yukon. A deep trough over eastern North America is poised to receive the cold and spawn surface storms.

Better times are ahead for skiers and boarders east of the Mississippi. At the same time, rather quiet weather will develop out West. This pattern, once established, will persist into February.

Regional details…

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Occasional Pacific systems will bring snow next week…slowing down after, as western ridge builds.

Sierra: Storm track to the north for the foreseeable future.

Rockies: Moderate snow events across the north in the next week…weaker systems fight through the ridge after that. Central and southern Rockies pick up occasional light snowfalls.

Midwest: Cold starts pushing late next week, Alberta Clippers and lake effect snows will become frequent events for the second half of the month…and beyond.

Mid Atlantic/Southeast: Fresh snow in NC mountains late this week. Entire region in line for mountain snows and great snowmaking as the cold air deepens after mid-month.

Northeast/QB: Cold, but with suppressed storm track through next week. Extended cold, snowy pattern develops thereafter.

Skiing Weatherman: The Beat Goes On

December 16, 2020/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

The Busy Pattern Continues.

Last week’s installment headlined a progressive pattern that has been sending ridges and troughs west to east across the continent at a dizzying pace. That pattern produced some meaningful snow in the West earlier this week and then unloaded a blockbuster on the mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast midweek, jumpstarting the season at dozens of resorts in the East as a result. The heavy snow did not extend to far northern New England, but snowmaking temps have been in place all this week so trail counts are on the rise.

For the foreseeable future, the fast moving pattern will continue with a tendency for upper level troughs to spend more time in the East then they did earlier in the season. Why the change? It has a lot to do with the phase of the NAO, or North Atlantic Oscillation. When the NAO is negative, we typically see an upper level ridge over Greenland and the waters to the south. In that position, it tends to slow down troughs as they move into eastern North America, giving them a chance to strengthen, spawn surface lows near the coast, and tap more in the way of cold air from Canada. That scenario unfolded this week during the current Nor’easter, and another storm could be in the cards again around Christmas Day. Here is a jet stream forecast for Christmas night that illustrates a classic negative NAO.

Christmas Day Jet Stream snapshot.

Prior to the arrival of the trough you see in the East, it will bring some snow to the upper Midwest on Christmas Eve, but in that position, a milder southwesterly flow will be in place further east. We could see one storm cut up through the Lakes, with a second storm then forming along the coast as the trough (and its cold air) tracks eastward. That could result in a rain to snow sequence playing out in the East on Christmas Day. Cold air will flow then into the Midwest and East early in the holiday week as the NAO will remain negative.

In the West, most of the action will continue to be focused in WA, OR, and BC, where shorter wavelength troughs keep rolling in from the Pacific Ocean. This weekend will bring a juicy system that originates further south, so it will lead to higher snow levels in the Cascades—as high as six-seven thousand feet. Snow levels will drop later Sunday into midweek, however, with fresh snow continuing through that period. Further inland, lighter snows will be common for the first half of next week in ID, MT, and WY. South of there, fresh snow will be scarce next week due to the presence of a flat ridge that doesn’t want to give way to systems from the north. Now, if you take a look at the jet stream map again, you will notice a large blue blob just off the west coast around Christmas Day. That trough will likely move toward the coast and perhaps bodily move inland early in the holiday week. That could turn into a very productive storm across a wide swath of the West. So, COVID restrictions aside, the holiday period is starting to shape up. Better late than never.

Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Plenty of snow in the next week, but with bouncing snow levels in the Cascades. A snowy, colder trough arrives just after Christmas.

Sierra: A quiet week leading up to Christmas. Prospects for snow improve after that.

Rockies: Light to moderate snows across the north leading up to the holiday keep surfaces soft and boost trail counts. Central and southern resorts waiting for the post-Christmas trough.

Midwest: Light snow early next week, more significant snow looking good for Christmas Eve. Good snowmaking temps much of the time.

Mid Atlantic/Southeast: Nice weekend on the slopes after fresh midweek snow. Milder next week. Colder after Christmas.

Northeast/QB: Quiet until Christmas storm that brings rain to snow. Wintry pattern during holiday week.

Skiing Weatherman: Parade Of Storms Coming

December 9, 2020/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Progressive Storm Threats Gets Underway

Although it’s likely that the holiday period will be a Covid-induced quiet one across the country, it is now crunch time for opening terrain that will create adequate social distancing to fend off further operating restrictions.

The past week brought about a pattern change that delivered snow to many resorts that had seen very little. Of late, storms have moved into the West, across the continent, and through the East and that trend will continue. Canada has been milder than normal for many weeks, but cold air is now building and becoming available for the storms further south so the potential for more snow in more spots is on the rise. In addition, I am a little less concerned about a holiday eastern warmup than I was last week.

In weather geek language, we are in a “progressive” pattern, meaning jet stream ridges and troughs are moving along from west to east without locking in for an extended stay. That produces changeable weather, but with more cold air becoming available from Canada, we are now talking more about snow and less about rain. There are still forecast challenges with respect to storm tracks, but overall, things are looking up.

In the near term, storms will move southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska and dump on the coastal ranges of British Columbia, Washington, and Oregon. Much of the moisture will get wrung out before the systems reach the northern Rockies, but there will be “topdressing” snow further inland most mornings through next week. The central and northern Sierra will pick up snow later this weekend and early next week with the prospects not as good further south due to the systems tracking too far to the east. Northern Utah and Colorado will cash in on the passage of these quick hitting systems next week but a lack of deep moisture will keep amounts light. The southern Rockies will see little new snow in the next week.

Over the eastern half of the country, disturbances will approach in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Cold air will still be a little scarce in the short term, so the track of any storm will determine where it snows. But the potential is clearly there, as this jet stream forecast for Monday, December 14 clearly illustrates.

On this map we see a trough over the South, with an extension northward to Canada, a combination that could easily produce snow from the mid-Atlantic resorts up through New England. Notice also the trough along the Pacific Northwest coast and the next in line south of the Aleutians. The deeper trough over northern Canada acts as the center of the wheel, with the other features effectively rotating around it. The orange over Greenland plays an important role for the East in this pattern. That’s an upper level ridge that makes it easier for eastern troughs to strengthen as they approach the Atlantic. Indications are that the ridge will remain in the same general area until late month, so storm threats will be fairly frequent. Each trough that passes by will deliver a chunk of colder air from Canada, so the snowmakers will have ample opportunities as we approach the holidays.

Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Frequent storms from the Gulf of Alaska bring heavy snows every two-three days. Snow levels bounce a bit in Oregon Cascades.

Sierra: Periodic light snows from Tahoe northward until further notice. Minimal snow in southern Sierra.

Rockies: Northern resorts get frequent light to moderate snows. Occasional light snows Wasatch and central resorts. Limited snow prospects further south.

Midwest: Clipper system brings light snow Tuesday and delivers good snowmaking temps and modest lake effect snows.

Mid Atlantic/Southeast: Colder weather arrives Monday. Potential snowfall Tuesday. Good snowmaking week.

Northeast/QB: Mixed precip Sunday. Mountain snow showers Monday. Good snowmaking week with additional storm threats.

Skiing Weatherman: Here Comes The Snow!

December 2, 2020/2 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

The Weather Worm Is Turning, Especially In The East.

If the optimist in all of us considers November 1 the start of the winter sports season, then the first month of this season was a dud in the eastern half of the country. Cold air masses were infrequent visitors, and natural snow was even harder to find.

A persistent jet stream pattern brought early snow to the West while the East was stuck in mid-autumn weather much of the month. A western trough/eastern ridge couplet was common and kept any early winter weather bottled up over the West, especially in the Northwest, closer to the source of cold air. The ridge kept it unseasonably mild in the Midwest and East, with only passing chunks of cold air that supported brief snowmaking windows.

Well, the weather worm has turned, and it is now the eastern half of the country where an upper trough is promoting cold and snow while the West sits under a strong, quiet, ridge. Now, the air across Canada is milder than normal pretty much from coast to coast, but as it flows into the lower 48, it is just cold enough to lead to snowfall. Much of Ohio as well as western New York and far western Pennsylvania got tagged with a moderate snowfall early this week. Another storm will be on the weather maps this weekend. Because the axis of the upper trough that supports it will be further east than it was several days ago, the track of the surface storm will also be displaced eastward to the coast where it can tap deep moisture as it tracks toward southeastern New England.

Here is a look at how the jet stream will look early Saturday.

The axis is just east of the Appalachians and a surface storm that forms along the mid-Atlantic coast will be ushered up toward southeastern New England, a nice track for snow for the mountains of the Northeast. Cold air will be limited with this storm so elevation will play a big role in the battle of snow vs. rain.

If all the pieces come together, this storm has the potential to produce moderate to heavy amounts from the Catskills and Adirondacks through the mountains of western and northern New England. In addition, sufficiently cold air will move in behind the storm to allow productive snowmaking in the Upper Midwest and Northeast early next week. Full disclosure: If the northern and southern branches of the jet don’t work together to form the system you see on the map, then the storm will be a dud. But I am an optimist; first turns look plausible next week!!!

Looking further down the road, it looks like the eastern trough will dominate for about two weeks and additional opportunities for snow will develop. After that, the pattern is likely to revert to the western ridge/eastern trough combo, which is more favored in La Nina winters like this one.

Here are the regional details:

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: A storm will try to dent the ridge late this weekend/early next week and lead to high elevation snow from Washington into B.C. Better pattern evolves mid-month.

Sierra: Dry for at least the next week; pattern change mid-month is next good chance at snow.

Rockies: The upper ridge keeps it dry for the next week. This region will also be waiting for the western ridge to break down.

Midwest: Seasonably cold for the next week and likely longer. Decent snowmaking temps most nights. Alberta Clipper systems will bring light snow every few days.

Northeast/QB: Favorable pattern for snow and snowmaking temps for next 12-14 days. Potential for significant mountain snow this weekend. Pattern change to milder

Skiing Weatherman: Fast Movers

November 16, 2020/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

In last week’s first installment of my weekly discussion, the Pac Northwest and northern Rockies were enjoying a parade of early season snow events while skiers and riders in the Midwest and East had to be content with tuning gear and digesting the state-by-state Covid restrictions rolling out recently.

The storms have continued to hit the same general areas that were hit in the West recently, and dozens of resorts with scheduled openings between this weekend and early December could probably open now on plenty of terrain with the snow they have picked up already. By the way, those same regions are in line for more snow in the next week!

In the Midwest and East, a fast moving trough passed through earlier this week, and the air was cold enough for snowmakers from the upper Midwest into the Northeast to get started building bases. In a transient jet stream pattern like the one we are in right now, where troughs and ridges keep marching around the northern hemisphere, making snow in these areas is a gamble.

Resorts would love to open in time for Thanksgiving, but at this time of year, seldom is there enough cold air around to keep it cold enough for snowmaking for more than a couple of days. Only if a blocking pattern develops, when an upper level ridge parks near Greenland, which then allows a cold trough to come to a halt over eastern North America, do we see appreciable early season snow or extended snowmaking windows. Blocking is not in place, so cold shots will only come along every three or four days. Luckily, when it does turn milder, the short days and low sun angle will help limit the melting of the snow that falls or is made.

A modest cool shot will produce a minor amount of snow and enable a minor shot of snowmaking across the northern Great Lakes, Adirondacks, and northern New England later this weekend. The snow will be confined to higher elevations in the East. The next shot at cold and perhaps snow will come just prior to Thanksgiving Day, when another trough will move through the Midwest and Northeast. Right now it looks promising for snow in the northern Lakes, but in the Northeast, the best we can hope for is backside snow after rain on the front end of that event. So for now, any skiing/riding over Thanksgiving in the East looks very limited, prospects in the upper Midwest look a little better. Your best bet? In the Pac NW and northern Rockies. Here is a snowfall forecast for the next ten days that says it all.

Here are the regional details…

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Strong troughs from the Gulf of Alaska continue to pinwheel into this region, leading to snow events every few days. Cascades and coastal ranges of B.C. will be the big winners.

Sierra: After a productive storm midweek, this region will be south of the action for the next week as the northern branch of the jet stream dominates.

Rockies: Northern Rockies pick up a couple of additional rounds of snow early to midweek. Resort opening prospects in ID, MT, and WY look positive near-term.

Midwest: Northern resorts in MN, WI, and MI will have nighttime snowmaking opportunities through this weekend, along with some natural snow. Fast moving trough will bring light to perhaps moderate snow Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. Some limited Thanksgiving weekend skiing/riding is possible.

Northeast/QB: After two nights of snowmaking this week, another nighttime opportunity will be present Saturday and Monday nights. Two messy events could “net” higher elevation snow late weekend and Wednesday into Thursday. Lower elevation resorts on hold, waiting for cold.

Skiing Weatherman: Haves and Have Nots

November 12, 2020/3 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

So It Begins, Unevenly.

As is often the case at the start of the ski season, the weather pattern is designating “haves” and “have nots” in terms of sufficiently cold air for snowmaking and natural snow. Consistent with first year La Ninas, as this season will be, November has brought winter weather to the West while the eastern half of the country has been basking in Indian Summer warmth for the most part. The jet stream has been set up in a western trough/eastern ridge configuration since the start of the month, allowing cold air to spill out of Canada into the Rockies, Cascades, and northern Sierra. In addition to supporting a good amount of snowmaking, the western trough has also be productive in terms of natural snow and that has allowed a small number of resorts to kick off the season. From Banff Norquay and Lake Louise in the north to Wolf Creek in southern Colorado, turns are now being made. Wolf Creek, a legendary snow magnet, has all but six of their 133 runs skiable already. Don’t believe me? Check out their web cams!

In the short run, the western trough will remain in place, and additional snow will fall into this weekend in the B.C. coastal ranges, the Cascades, northern Rockies, and the peaks of NoCal. Yet another system will move in from the Pacific late in the weekend, but that one will lift more northeastward, leading to more snow in the Northwest, but also a rise in snow levels. Early next week, a ridge will pop up in the west, while a trough dives through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast. The air will be cold enough for at least a couple of nights of snowmaking across the northern Lakes as well as northern New York and New England. It will be a gamble to make the snow, because the cold is not ready to settle into the eastern half of the country. By next weekend, the jet stream will flatten out across the country, allowing mild Pacific air to move from west to east. This jet stream forecast for next Saturday illustrates.

Although the flow looks pretty flat and dull, a look at the temperature anomalies at 5,000 feet, a forecasting proxy for surface temps. There will be some modestly cold air along the Canadian border, so there is potential for some additional snowmaking late next week in the Lakes and Northeast. Here’s that map.

It’s still early, so we’ll take potential where we can find it!

Here are the regional details…

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Two additional early season snowfall are coming, the first late this week, with a storm right on its heels about 48 hours later. The second storm will have higher snow levels.

Cascades and Sierra: The same two systems will bring snow to the Cascades with the snow extending down to the northern mountains of California.

Rockies: Northern Rockies pick up two additional snowfalls by early next week. First system reaches Wasatch, second stays further north. Central and southern Rockies miss most of the action…some light snow will reach Colorado late this week, though.

Midwest: Resorts in far northern MN and MI will be able to make snow late this weekend/early next week and again late next week. The early week cold will trigger some lake effect snow in the Upper Peninsula.

Northeast/QB: Northern New York and New England will have a couple of snowmaking nights early next week and again late in the week. Longer term, CONSISTENT cold is not happening until a major pattern change, not likely until very late in the month at the earliest.

Patience.

Skiing Weatherman: Winter Weigh-In Time

October 26, 2020/1 Comment/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

What Does A La Nina Winter Mean For Snow Sports?

View of Mt Washington from Wildcat, Oct 18

After seeing a web cam shot of snow-covered Mt. Washington, NH this past weekend, I quickly contracted a case of “calendar shock”, realizing that it was time to submit some ideas on where I think this winter is headed, weatherwise. Co-Publisher Mike Maginn wrote a nice piece on La Nina earlier this month and indeed, this will be a La Nina winter. La Nina is the cold water cousin of El Nino, with the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean running below normal now and likely to remain that way through much of the upcoming winter. What does that mean in terms of sensible weather downstream over the U.S. and Canada? Well, there are different flavors of La Nina, based largely on how cool, relative to normal, those tropical waters are. This looks to be a weak to moderate La Nina, and in general, the storm tracks during a La Nina winter look like this:

You will notice that most of the storm tracks are over the northern half of the country, closer to the source of cold air that makes those systems productive in terms of snow. La Ninas are not as friendly as El Ninos to skiers and riders over the southwestern quadrant of the country, thus, the lack of an established tendency. Well before the first turns of any season, friends and clients often ask me for guidance on where to head in the West for a winter trip. During a La Nina, I steer them north of I-70, where the busier storm tracks lead to more snow and more consistent conditions. There are exceptions, but the resort snowfall data that Mike included in his article supports that idea.

As far as La Nina winters over the Midwest and East are concerned, we often see a battle between a cold jet stream level trough over the center of the continent and a warm southeastern ridge. A preview of that set up will develop during the last week of this month. Take a look at this forecast for the jet stream valid on 10/28.

During winter, large dips in the middle of the country will act as a receptacle for cold air moving southward out of Canada. As troughs interact with warmer air along the Gulf and in the Southeast, storms often take shape and then move northeastward along the western slopes of the Appalachians, as you can see on the storm track map above. These storms bring snow to resorts in the Great Lakes, both from the low pressure center, and from backlash lake effect snow once the low move up into Canada. The storm track that you see east of the Appalachians comes from systems that redevelop east of the mountains as the upper trough moves toward the coast. These are known as “secondary” low pressure centers, formed as the upper level support translates over the mountains and taps into energy from the waters of the Atlantic. These secondary storms represent the best opportunities for meaningful snowfall at the resorts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast during a La Nina.

There are other factors that are correlated with subtle but potentially significant changes in these storm tracks, one of which is the solar cycle, and I will discuss those factors in the coming weeks. For now, though, I am most bullish on the prospects for the West, north of I-7o and the upper Midwest. I am guardedly optimistic about the Northeast, where temperatures should work out slightly milder than normal but with above normal snowfall via some sizable storms. The anticipated southeastern ridge will likely pose some problems for the Mid-Atlantic and especially for the Southeast.

Skiing Weatherman: More Snow Coming. No Kidding.

March 24, 2020/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Late Season Snow Opens Nordic Opportunities.

As the coronavirus situation has continued to unfold and expand, the curtain has all but come down on the alpine season across North America. Nevertheless, lovers of the great outdoors continue to find ways to ingest their fair share of fresh air by a variety of different means, including cross country skiing aficionados. At last count, 17 Nordic centers around the country remain open. For those of you who will continue to rack up the kilometers as we move through early spring, here’s this week’s weather outlook.

This season now has all the earmarks of ending up with bookends in terms of jet stream patterns. You may recall that November got us off to a quick start as the jet stream aligned itself in a fashion favorable for the delivery of early season cold to the lower 48 states. Here in the East, as the calendar turned from October to November, the folks at Killington were very nervous about the prospect for the Women’s World Cup event scheduled for late that month. However, when the Women’s White Circus showed up three weeks later, the reversal of weather fortunes made for another hugely successful weekend of racing.

And then came the rest of the winter. As I discussed a couple of weeks ago, the Midwest and East got locked into a highly unfavorable jet steam setup that, unfortunately, made it very difficult for cold air masses to stick around for a while. Well, that appears to be about to change, which should help to extend the Nordic season.

In a nutshell, an upper level trough is going to set up shop over the eastern half of North America later next week. At the same time, a blocking ridge will be in place over Greenland. It was the LACK of a blocking ridge in that position that allowed cold air masses to slide right off the continent when they did manage to make a push into the Midwest and East. Cold air is not as abundant as it was one or two months ago, but there is enough available to flow into a trough and lead to late season snow. That scenario is on the table around April 3-5 in the Northeast. Here is a look at the expected pattern on the morning of the April 3:

A deep trough centered over eastern New York will provide the focus for the cold air. The trough may want to progress eastward into the north Atlantic, but the ridge that extends from Labrador to Greenland will resist and force the trough to only slowly move toward the ocean. It is important to also know that near the center of circulation of troughs, the air is rising and cooling to a greater extent than at points further away from the center. This further suggests that eastern New York and northern New England could very well pick up a substantial late season snowfall next weekend. That’s great news for Nordic touring centers from the Adirondacks to the mountains of Maine. As long as the ridge remains over Greenland, the colder air will stick around, just like in November.

Here Are The Regional Details.

Northwest U.S./western Canada: A season of abundant snowfall shows no signs of quitting. The hits will keep on coming in this part of the world for the next couple of weeks at least.

Sierra: While the amounts won’t be as prodigious as further north, the proximity of a trough not far offshore should produce several meaningful snowfalls in the next two weeks.

Northern Rockies: The storms that continue to bury the coastal ranges will move inland and keep this part of the U.S. and adjacent Canada in the crosshairs for solid snowfalls for the foreseeable future.

Central and southern Rockies: In the absence of an El Nino, it is tough to grind much snow out of the southern branch of the jet stream late in the season. Northern stream systems will graze these areas from time to time and provide several lighter snowfalls.

Midwest: Other than across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, snowfall is a long shot the rest of the way in the middle of the country.

Northeast/Quebec: Next weekend looks like the best opportunity for late snow. Based on what has happened the past few weeks, northern Maine and adjacent Quebec won’t see bare ground for many weeks to come.

Thanks for reading. Enjoy your sliding and your summer.

Skiing Weatherman: There’s Snow In The West, Only Maybe East

March 19, 2020/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

For Those Still Venturing Out On Snow Shoes, Skinny Skis, Or Skins.

On a typical office day in the winter, I often scan web cams from resorts, living vicariously on those days when I can’t be on the snow myself. Now that the coronavirus pandemic has ground the winter sports season to a virtual halt, I still check out the cams, but recently I have felt more of a sense of sadness rather than excitement or anticipation of my next trip to the mountains. The absence of skiers and the stationary lifts is striking, and where fresh snow has fallen and remains untouched, the scenes are downright bizarre. Although the alpine resort options are very limited, there are many of you who still want to get your fresh air on skins, skinny skis, or snowshoes, or perhaps with your grandchildren on a sledding hill, and it is for you that I present this week’s weather discussion.

The winter pattern has shown a great reluctance to change from a dominant western trough/southeastern ridge configuration, which has led to abundant western snows and a struggle for snow lovers in the Midwest and East. For the past two weeks, there have been signs of change in the Pacific that correlate to colder than normal weather spreading into the eastern half of the country and that change makes sense based on the change of seasons. You see, as we head toward spring, the distance between jet stream features shortens as the available supply of cold air in the hemisphere starts its seasonal decrease. If you think of that cold air as one large puddle in the heart of winter, it becomes smaller puddles as the overall supply dwindles. Each winter trough requires a cold pool aloft to exist, but with less cold air around, those features tend to be smaller than a month or two ago. So, rather than have two large features covering the continent, there is room for three, or even four from the eastern Pacific to the East coast. It is possible to have a western trough AND an eastern trough with shorter wavelengths. This jet stream forecast for next Tuesday illustrates that setup.

Not only is there a deep trough off the West coast, which will deliver another significant snowfall to the Sierra, Cascades, and northern Rockies, but there is a departing trough over the Northeast. In addition, the ripple in the flow over the Plains is another package of energy that could turn into a deeper eastern trough and potential snow producer by late next week because it could become stronger as it moves into the East.

Looking further down the road into early April, there are conflicting signs as to whether or not the jet stream flow will tap any appreciable amount of cold air to sustain what is left of the season. The transitional months are easily the most difficult time to forecast. Judging the battle between the retreating cold and advancing spring warmth is a handful, and there are signs that the pattern will revert to one that is milder than normal over the East while the West continues in more of a wintry setup. I still think that the shorter wavelengths will deliver cold shots and late opportunities for snow to the Midwest and East, at least up until Easter weekend.

Here Are The Regional Details.

Northwest U.S./western Canada: Quiet weekend with systems from Alaska moving into the region next week, leading to a snowy period overall.

Sierra: Dry weekend with snows returning to region next week as an upper trough slides down the coast. Only issue is that if trough hugs the coast, snow levels will rise.

Northern Rockies: Sunny weekend. Coastal Pacific system will bring snow to the region by Tuesday and Wednesday…another system arrives next weekend.

Central and southern Rockies: Southern branch of jet stream has brought this area snow over the past two weeks, but it will be rather quiet for the next week. Nothing more than a little light snow at times.

Midwest: Late week snow will refresh surfaces across the north. Nice weather for the weekend. Next opportunity for snow late next week.

Northeast/Quebec: Chilly, dry weekend. No major storms next week, but an early week southern system could bring late snow to the northern mid-Atlantic areas. Overnight lows help preserve snow most nights.

Skiing Weatherman: Out Like A Lion

March 11, 2020/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

March Won’t Be Ending Spring-like.

Although I had good intentions, I must confess that I did not get on the snow in the past week. 65 degree temperatures here in Rhode Island early this week didn’t help to inspire, for sure. Much of the East has had a frustrating season, due to a lack of cold and snow, but the evolving pattern over the next several weeks is not going to please those ready to turn their backs on winter. The pattern is going to change to one that delivers cold and snow into the country, first into the West but also to the East, where the colder pattern will persist for a longer spell than we have seen since early winter. That is great news if you have plans to ski or ride Easter weekend!

In the short term, a massive high pressure center is going to deliver a seasonably cold weekend to the resorts in the Great Lakes and East. In the West, the best news is that the Tahoe area is going to receive heavy snow during the second half of this weekend into early next week. After a largely snow-free February, some lighter snow has fallen the past two weekends in the central Sierra but this event will deliver the load that the resorts really need. Amounts will range from 1 to 2.5 feet with this storm. Snow is headed for the northern Rockies this weekend, too, as this surface map from Sunday morning illustrates.

Next week will turn milder again in the East, but not to the extent that we saw earlier this week. The coastal system that impacts the Sierra this weekend will continue to rotate southeastward during the first half of next week, bringing snows to the southern Rockies. While the upper level trough that produces that snow favors the West, an upper ridge over the East will keep it mild and deflect a storm up through the Great Lakes late in the week, and that track will be unfavorable for snow in the East.

Help is on the way to the East, though, in a classic case of “better late than never”. Changes are underway in the Pacific in terms of the location of ridges and troughs, and we will soon see a configuration that has been rare this winter. An upper ridge will set up shop over Alaska, with a trough south of that spot. Here is forecast for the 22^nd that illustrates the position of that ridge.

In addition to the strong ridge sitting over Alaska, notice the trough extending down from the southern flank of the polar vortex all the way to southern California…that will continue to benefit parts of the West. With a clockwise flow around the ridge and a counterclockwise flow around the trough, you can see how the air will be directed from the Yukon into the northern Plains and then eastward through the Great Lakes. As the trough presses eastward, it will spread the cold air into the East for the final week of the month and likely beyond. The season will roll along in the West, while in the East, don’t despair, a solid shot of cold and snow will set things up for some nice Easter sliding.

Here Are The Regional Details

Northwest U.S./western Canada: Light to moderate snow this weekend followed by several dry days next week. Light snows return Thursday, followed by a more substantial weekend storm.

Sierra: Good sized storm this weekend, the biggest since January. Next weekend looks promising, too. Longer term, eastern Pacific trough development will bring additional snows into April.

Northern Rockies: Moderate to heavy snow this weekend, light snows continue early in the week. Next shot at snow later next weekend.

Central and southern Rockies: Light to moderate snow this weekend, another shot at significant snow Tuesday as southern branch systems moves toward Four Corners.

Midwest: Nice weekend on the slopes. Light precip early next week, snow across north, rain south. Developing colder pattern will help sustain the season late month/early April.

Northeast/Quebec: Seasonably cold, dry weekend. Milder next week, not so much for northern New York and New England. Pattern change will make Easter viable for skiing, riding.

Skiing Weatherman: Cold Air Scarce In The East

March 4, 2020/0 Comments/in Reader Submitted Videos, Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

What’s The Matter With The Polar Vortex?

The past week brought light to moderate snows to much of the West, including some much needed snow in the Sierra, a region that has missed out on storms for much of this winter. A three-day storm last weekend was very productive from the snow belt areas downwind of the Great Lakes through the higher peaks of northern New York and northern New England. Stowe, Smuggler’s Notch, and Jay Peak in Vermont were the lottery winners, with over three feet of snow piling up. A good friend and Stowe skier told me that every turn in the woods last Saturday produced a “face shot” of powder! My favorite resort in the world, Mont Sutton in Quebec, just over the border from Jay, had a three foot dump, as well, and their phenomenal “su bois” (glade) skiing was the best of the season.

While most of the West has enjoyed frequent snows through the heart of the winter, the eastern half of the country has had trouble lining up storms on favorable tracks, and snowmaking temps have been spotty, especially south of I-90. There have been several major snows across the far north, and at elevation, but even in those areas, mixed precip events have also passed through. The main problem has been pretty simple: a lack of deep cold air masses AND a lack of staying power of the cold air that managed to push south. In this piece, I thought I would touch on the reasons why cold air has been hard to come by this winter.

For most of the season, a low pressure center at the upper levels of the atmosphere has been sitting over the western portions of the Arctic. The Polar Vortex typically meanders around the high latitudes, and occasionally weakens and breaks down, and that is when chunks of very cold air migrate southward into the mid-latitudes, often supporting snowstorms in the process. Occasionally, the vortex moves bodily southward, and that is when we see the coldest air reach the U.S. This winter, the PV has been remarkably persistent in its size and position, and that has greatly limited the amount of available cold air. Here is a map of the jet stream showing the current PV.

So, cold air has been scarce and when it has managed to find the eastern half of the country, it has seldom lasted more than a couple of days before milder air returned. The lack of staying power is related to the lack of a blocking pattern over the North Atlantic. A high pressure ridge over Greenland does a nice job of buckling the jet stream over the U.S. in winter, allowing cold air masses to hang around and help produce multiple snow events. That ridge has been missing much of the winter, resulting in a flat jet stream flow across the country, which has tapped milder Pacific air and pumped it into the pattern. Here is a diagram to illustrate.

Notice there’s a low pressure center near Greenland, not the usual high pressure ridge. The counter-clockwise circulation around that feature helps sweep any cold off the east coast and out to sea. There are signs that the flow may be buckling more from mid-month on, which would help generate late snows and sustain the eastern season into April. We shall see.

Here Are The Regional Details.

Northwest U.S./western Canada: Trough offshore brings moderate to heavy snow into next week. After a couple of dry days, a stronger trough comes ashore with heavy snow later next week. The epic season continues.

Sierra: Trough digs down the coast from the NW over the weekend, producing light to moderate snows. Dry early next week, with southern branch trough moving inland late next week, bringing significant snow to the southern Sierra.

Northern Rockies: Weakening troughs produces light snow over the weekend into early next week. Next shot at major snow late next week from northern branch system.

Central and southern Rockies: Ridge aloft early with mild temps. Light snow later this weekend. Next significant storm late next week.

Midwest: Mild weekend with surfaces softening. Lower Lakes looking at potential snow event later next week. No lake effect events in next week.

Northeast/Quebec: Nice weekend on the slopes. Next potential storm mid to late next week, likely another elevation event.

The Skiing Weatherman: Snow West, Maybe East

February 24, 2020/0 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Editor Note: SeniorsSkiing.com is asking our readers to contribute to support our online magazine. Yes, we have grown in the number of subscribers and advertisers. But our expenses have also grown. You can help us defray some of these expenses by helping us out with a donation.]

Support SeniorsSkiing.com by clicking here.

______________________________________________________

The Pattern Persists.

In the past two weeks I have enjoyed many days on the snow, and a couple of them turned out feeling like reunions with old girlfriends. First came an afternoon at West Mountain in Glens Falls, NY, where new owners and $6 million in investments have turned a sleepy hill into a dynamic mountain that embraces racing for all ages. Got my skis tuned there, and the result was phenomenal!

Then I caught Wildcat, NH on a packed powder bluebird day. The long winding cruisers loaded with natural mini-features brought back memories of cutting high school in Rhode Island for twofer days on Wednesdays. The views of Mt. Washington across the street are beyond stunning. Wildcat summit view is the best in the East, IMO.

So, where are we going with the weather the next couple of weeks? The pattern has been rather persistent for weeks on end now, with abundant snow piling up over much of the West, the exception is the central and southern Sierra, where storms of significance have been rare this winter. In the Midwest and East, “persistent” has had a different meaning with mild and cold air masses taking turns marching through every four to six days. Storm tracks have favored a “cutter” type, where the primary low center moves through the eastern Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence River Valley. A coastal secondary storm has formed with many of the cutters, but usually quite late—south of Long Island or Cape Cod—which has helped boost snowfall totals in New Hampshire and Maine as the low center heads for the Maritimes. However, at resorts further west, in VT, NY, and PA, the cutter has been more influential and most have produced a “variety pack” in terms of precip types.

There are a number of indices that help me put together longer range forecasts, such as the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). For the most part, these indices have sent mixed signals in what has turned out to be a tough winter for forecasting over the eastern half of the country. The West has been much easier: ”Snow and more snow”.

One index that has performed admirably has been the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). When it is positive, we tend to see a trough over Alaska, which helps drive moisture into the NW, which accounts for the bountiful snow, but that Pacific air is mild when it reaches the lower elevations further east. When the EPO is negative, an upper ridge pokes northward to Alaska and helps tap colder air from the Arctic regions. This forecast of the EPO telegraphs the changeable nature of the temps going forward.

Following the green line, the neutral look to start with accounts for the chill of this weekend, with the rise next week foretelling a milder spell, followed by a drop and colder weather thereafter, a sequence that mimics what we have experienced for quite a while.

The decade of the 10’s was the most active on record in terms of sizable coastal snowstorms in the East, but the first winter of the new decade has pitched a shutout to this point. That said, there are signs that the forces might conspire to bring the Northeast a late season dump during the colder dip in the EPO. Here is a look at the European forecast for the 7th of March. A man can dream can’t he?

Here Are The Regional Details

Northwest U.S./western Canada: Onshore flow from the Pacific will keep the snow coming, broken periodically by a short wavelength ridge passing through. Many powder days coming through mid-March.

Sierra: Some much needed snow is coming to this region early in the week of the 2^nd. Another shot comes along about a week later.

Northern Rockies: I don’t see a whopper on the horizon, but a moderate snowfall will come along every few days in the next two weeks

Central and southern Rockies: Light to moderate snow event 3^rd-5^th followed by upper level ridging and bluebird skies late next week.

Midwest: Lake effect snow early in snowbelt areas. Clipper systems bring additional snow during EPO dip.

Northeast/Quebec: Back and forth temperature ride continues into mid-March. Snowfall highly storm track/elevation dependent. Some signs of coastal storm around March 6-7 starting to show up.

Skiing Weatherman: Sun Spot Cycle Means Jet Stream Changes

February 10, 2020/2 Comments/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

[Editor Note: SeniorsSkiing.com is asking our readers to contribute to support our online magazine. Yes, we have grown in the number of subscribers and advertisers. But our expenses have also grown. You can help us defray some of these expenses by helping us out with a donation.]

Support SeniorsSkiing.com by clicking here.

______________________________________________________

The Potential Exists For “Significant” Snow Events In The Midwest and East For The Remainder Of The Winter.

In real estate, location is everything. In skiing, TIMING is everything, and last weekend I lucked out during my three days in Stowe. The first day, a foot of what turned out to be a 19 inch storm fell, and the skiing the following two days was wonderful. Now, if you end up at Stowe on a weekend powder day and don’t get there before 9 a.m., you will have a traffic/parking problem…consider yourself warned.

That storm dumped on the East along a swath from western New York to the mountains of Maine, including nearby Quebec. Once again, there wasn’t enough cold air to bring snow to the northern mid-Atlantic as the battle between modest Canadian cold and the mild air associated with a southeastern U.S. ridge continued. That same clash of air masses will carry on through much of this month, with the upper Midwest and interior Northeast in line for frequent refreshing of surface snow.

In the West, the replacement of an Alaskan upper ridge with a trough will keep the hits coming to the mountains of B.C., WA, OR and the northern Rockies, but not for long. Another system will spin southeastward from Alaska during the holiday weekend and it will reach the northern and central Rockies by early next week, but this shot of the jet stream on President’s Day shows a ridge poking northward into Alaska.

That feature will allow storms (with less moisture) to continue moving through western Canada into the western U.S., but the ridge will nudge the storm track eastward, which will limit the snow in the U.S. coastal ranges. The region of the West that could use fresh snow is the central and southern Sierra, but this jet stream change will make that a tough task for the next week, at least.

Looking further down the road, it appears the pattern will become more changeable. For the most part, jet stream features have been quite persistent this winter. There have been pattern changes, but once they set up they have tended to linger longer than usual for winter, but that is quite common at the time of solar minimum. The following chart shows you the 11 year sunspot cycle for the past 250 years and clearly shows that sunspots are scarce right now.

Fighting the persistence associated with solar minimum is the tendency for the wavelengths between jet stream troughs and ridges to shorten during the latter stages of winter, due to the gradual shrinking of cold pools that support the troughs that lead to snow and colder weather. So, even as a trough visits Alaska from time to time going forward, which will help shoot milder Pacific air into the pattern over the lower 48, the potential exists for significant snow events in the Midwest and East due to shorter wavelength troughs taking shape at times. That includes those areas, generally south of I-80, where snow has been hard to come by this season. North of I-90 in the east, the snows should keep on coming. If you time it right, you should have a good number of powder days to choose from well into March.

Here Are The Regional Details:

Northwest U.S./western Canada: Holiday weekend into early next week will be snowy, but as ridging pushes northward and toward the coast, the storm track will ease to the east. Snows will back off for the first time in a while later next week.

Sierra: Offshore ridge will continue to make it difficult for storms to reach the Tahoe region. A southern branch storm will deliver fresh snow to the southern Sierra and Southwest late next week.

Northern Rockies: Another Alaskan low will bring moderate to heavy snow late this weekend. Only lighter snows will fall beyond that event for the following week.

Central and southern Rockies: Moderate to locally heavy snow late Sunday through Tuesday, with ridging leading to only spotty light snow later in the week. Southern Rockies in line for snow late in the week, too.

Midwest: A couple of Clipper systems bring light to moderate snow to the north early next week and again late in the week. Temps comfortable for February.

Northeast/Quebec: Clipper system brings light snow Sunday. Stronger storm follows Tuesday, with snow favored north of I-90, mixed/rain to south. Parade of storms continues for a while.

Skiing Weatherman: A Battle For The Second Half

February 4, 2020/1 Comment/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

[Editor Note: SeniorsSkiing.com is asking our readers to contribute to support our online magazine. Yes, we have grown in the number of subscribers and advertisers. But our expenses have also grown. You can help us defray some of these expenses by helping us out with a donation.]

Support SeniorsSkiing.com by clicking here.

______________________________________________________

Post-Ground Hog Day Winter Looks Like A Struggle Between Air Masses. The Winner Determines the Outcome Of The Season.

Over the past week, the Northwest and northern Rockies have been the overall winners in the snowfall lottery, continuing a trend that has been in place much of this winter. Over the eastern half of the country, it has been a struggle to pile up snowfalls. More often than not, storms have produced a mix of precip types because of an unfavorable storm track or simply just a lack of available cold air. This discussion is going to focus on the Midwest and East, because a battle for the outcome of the season in those regions is getting underway. What I mean by that is cold air is trying to push southward out of Canada but milder air associated with an upper ridge over the Southeast just won’t go away. While the next couple of weeks look snowy, there are signs that the ridge may push back and cause the storm track to shift northward late this month.

The day this is posted, a juicy storm is delivering heavy snow to a swath of the Northeast from upstate New York to western Maine. Further south, snow is also falling on the heels of another round of mixed precip. The dramatic thermal gradient between the contrasting air masses is responsible for the storm and if we look at the outlook for temperatures at 5,000 feet for Friday (2/7), you can see the essence of the fight.

The border between blue and green is the 32 degree line, which approximates where the rain/snow line is likely to be. The line has cut across the East, and at times the Midwest, in most storms this season, causing a wide variety of precip types and changeable conditions.

Last week I wrote about the cold that was finally asserting itself again, and it will be available for storms through at least mid-month, so I am confident that more snow will fall north of I-80 or so. Beyond that, I have some concerns about the staying power of any cold, based on whether or not the EPO, or Eastern Pacific Oscillation, will stay negative, where it is now. A negative EPO, where an upper ridge is found over Alaska with an upper trough underneath it and off the west coast, correlates with colder than normal temps over the eastern half of the country. That helps turn more water vapor into snowflakes rather than those less desirable forms of precipitation. There are signs that the EPO will trend positive later this month, with a trough returning to Alaska. That would inject milder Pacific air into the pattern which would squeeze the rain/snow line further north once again. Here is a forecast for the EPO going forward.

It is not forecast to go strongly positive, but still enough to potentially limit the push of the cold air from southern Canada. I will have more in my next post, but in the meantime, enjoy the snowy pattern unfolding from the Lakes to the Northeast.

Here Are The Regional Details

Northwest U.S./western Canada: Disturbances will slide down the coast along the eastern flank of the ridge over Alaska and deliver moderate to locally heavy snowfall every two or three days through the next week. The parade will continue into Week Two.

Sierra: Ridge offshore is “too close for comfort” in Week One as most storms are deflected to the east. Week Two looks more promising for fresh snow.

Northern Rockies: Systems cutting southeast into the region will maintain enough moisture and power to keep the snows coming every few days Week One into Week Two/

Central and southern Rockies: The storms that hit the NW/N Rockies will produce a snowy Week One in the central Rockies. Light to moderate snows further south in NM/AZ. Week Two looks better.

Midwest: Two snowfalls north of I-80 in Week One will refresh the slopes nicely. Alberta Clippers will bring additional snow in Week Two. Packed powder to rule in most of this region.

Northeast/QB: Early storm sets things up for a nice weekend from central NY through Adirondacks, northern Greens/Whites and western Maine. Same areas hit again later next week. Mixed precip south of these areas.

Skiing Weatherman: Winter Is Delivering

January 22, 2020/1 Comment/in Skiing Weatherman/by Herb Stevens

Looks Like A Promising Couple Of Weeks.

It has been a terrific week of skiing and riding in most of the U.S. and Canada and I have been lucky enough to squeeze in a couple of days. Loon Mountain on Tuesday was wonderful; miles and miles of packed powder and views of the White Mountains that are hard to beat. Packed powder, sunshine, and light winds at Stratton on Thursday added up to another awesome day.

The pattern looks very promising for the next couple of weeks, but it is not without its challenges. The primary challenge arises from a jet stream development over the northeastern Pacific that quite honestly, I had not anticipated. With a sizable pool of warmer than normal water over that part of the Pacific, I expected an upper level ridge to be a persistent feature that would extend northward to Alaska. Instead, a trough is parked over Alaska and the counter clockwise circulation around it cuts off cold air from the high latitudes and pumps milder Pacific air into the southern Canada/U.S. pattern instead. Temps will be above normal over Canada for the next ten days or so as flat ridging dominates there. Does that mean that it can’t snow over the northern tier of states? Not at all, because we are at the climatologically coldest time of year. However, each storm will be a nail-biter for snow vs. rain in the Midwest, northern mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Here is a forecast map for the jet stream across the continent for later Saturday, Jan 25, that illustrates the issues.

The trough off the west coast that stretches northward to Alaska is tapping relatively mild air and sending it into the Northwest and mountains of B.C. There is a ton of moisture available, but snow levels will be an issue in WA and OR this weekend…not so further north in B.C. The moisture will flow east and the northern and central Rockies will benefit with moderate amounts of new snow later this weekend.

The red shades that you see across Canada indicate the extent of the ridge that will play a major role in this weekend’s event in the Northeast. Although it is mild relative to normal over the eastern half of Canada, that air is still cold enough to support snow. Also, upper ridges support surface high pressure centers that can deliver low level cold air into the path of a storm. Just such a high will be present over Quebec this weekend and it will help produce snow in the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, and into the mountains of Maine. Further south it will turn into more of an elevation-dependent tossup. The upper ridge will help suppress the trough you see over eastern Ohio and it will track east…favorable for the snow to the north. The upper ridge will also keep the surface low from racing out to sea, so the snow will be a 48-60 hour event. Here is a snowfall forecast map through Monday night…it is great to see that significant snow will reach southward to West Virginia resorts…they are running a little lean right now.

Longer term it looks like the same general pattern will remain in place for the next 10-14 days, with another eastern storm in the cards late next week. After that, the western ridge should poke north far enough to deliver a fresh shot of cold to the lower 48.

Here Are The Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: B.C. will see very heavy snow this weekend. WA and OR Cascades pick up heavy “cement” as snow levels start high and slowly drop. Same general setup holds through next week.

Sierra: Snow—perhaps a foot—Saturday night/Sunday Tahoe regio. Snow levels dropping through the event. Lighter snows southern Sierra. Some light snow next week; main storm track to north.

Northern Rockies: Moderate snow will develop later this weekend from Pacific trough. Wasatch, Tetons and points north looking snowy next week.

Central and southern Rockies: Dry weekend. Light snow early next week central, just snow showers south.

Midwest: Light snow north this weekend, mixed precip WI and lower MI. Another shot at snow later next week.

Northeast/QB: Long duration light to moderate snow event this weekend, north of I-90. Elevation snow between I-80 and I-90. Snow south to WV along Appalachian spine. Another storm late next week.

Tag Archive for: Skiing Weatherman

Some Powder. Trail Counts Good.

Bluebird Days. Light Snow.

Not Quite Spring Yet. More Snow In The Forecast.

Fresh Snow in Cali. Mild Temps Next Week.

Warmer end to February. March Snow Looks Good.

Hint: Cold Air Coming Your Way.

Terrain Opens Coast to Coast

Snow For All.

Regional Details

The Vortex Is Coming.

Regional Details

The Busy Pattern Continues.

Regional Details

Regional Details

The Weather Worm Is Turning, Especially In The East.

So It Begins, Unevenly.

What Does A La Nina Winter Mean For Snow Sports?

Late Season Snow Opens Nordic Opportunities.

Here Are The Regional Details.

For Those Still Venturing Out On Snow Shoes, Skinny Skis, Or Skins.

March Won’t Be Ending Spring-like.

Here Are The Regional Details

What’s The Matter With The Polar Vortex?

Here Are The Regional Details.

Editor Note: SeniorsSkiing.com is asking our readers to contribute to support our online magazine. Yes, we have grown in the number of subscribers and advertisers. But our expenses have also grown. You can help us defray some of these expenses by helping us out with a donation.]

______________________________________________________

The Pattern Persists.

Here Are The Regional Details

[Editor Note: SeniorsSkiing.com is asking our readers to contribute to support our online magazine. Yes, we have grown in the number of subscribers and advertisers. But our expenses have also grown. You can help us defray some of these expenses by helping us out with a donation.]

______________________________________________________

The Potential Exists For “Significant” Snow Events In The Midwest and East For The Remainder Of The Winter.

Here Are The Regional Details:

[Editor Note: SeniorsSkiing.com is asking our readers to contribute to support our online magazine. Yes, we have grown in the number of subscribers and advertisers. But our expenses have also grown. You can help us defray some of these expenses by helping us out with a donation.]

______________________________________________________

Post-Ground Hog Day Winter Looks Like A Struggle Between Air Masses. The Winner Determines the Outcome Of The Season.

Here Are The Regional Details

Looks Like A Promising Couple Of Weeks.

Here Are The Regional Details

SITE NAVIGATION

Subscribe to SeniorsSkiing.com

About SeniorsSkiing.com

ARCHIVES

Subscribe for FREE!