Looks Like A Promising Couple Of Weeks.

It has been a terrific week of skiing and riding in most of the U.S. and Canada and I have been lucky enough to squeeze in a couple of days. Loon Mountain on Tuesday was wonderful; miles and miles of packed powder and views of the White Mountains that are hard to beat. Packed powder, sunshine, and light winds at Stratton on Thursday added up to another awesome day.

The pattern looks very promising for the next couple of weeks, but it is not without its challenges. The primary challenge arises from a jet stream development over the northeastern Pacific that quite honestly, I had not anticipated. With a sizable pool of warmer than normal water over that part of the Pacific, I expected an upper level ridge to be a persistent feature that would extend northward to Alaska. Instead, a trough is parked over Alaska and the counter clockwise circulation around it cuts off cold air from the high latitudes and pumps milder Pacific air into the southern Canada/U.S. pattern instead. Temps will be above normal over Canada for the next ten days or so as flat ridging dominates there. Does that mean that it can’t snow over the northern tier of states? Not at all, because we are at the climatologically coldest time of year. However, each storm will be a nail-biter for snow vs. rain in the Midwest, northern mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Here is a forecast map for the jet stream across the continent for later Saturday, Jan 25, that illustrates the issues.

The trough off the west coast that stretches northward to Alaska is tapping relatively mild air and sending it into the Northwest and mountains of B.C. There is a ton of moisture available, but snow levels will be an issue in WA and OR this weekend…not so further north in B.C. The moisture will flow east and the northern and central Rockies will benefit with moderate amounts of new snow later this weekend.

The red shades that you see across Canada indicate the extent of the ridge that will play a major role in this weekend’s event in the Northeast. Although it is mild relative to normal over the eastern half of Canada, that air is still cold enough to support snow. Also, upper ridges support surface high pressure centers that can deliver low level cold air into the path of a storm. Just such a high will be present over Quebec this weekend and it will help produce snow in the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, and into the mountains of Maine. Further south it will turn into more of an elevation-dependent tossup. The upper ridge will help suppress the trough you see over eastern Ohio and it will track east…favorable for the snow to the north. The upper ridge will also keep the surface low from racing out to sea, so the snow will be a 48-60 hour event. Here is a snowfall forecast map through Monday night…it is great to see that significant snow will reach southward to West Virginia resorts…they are running a little lean right now.

Longer term it looks like the same general pattern will remain in place for the next 10-14 days, with another eastern storm in the cards late next week. After that, the western ridge should poke north far enough to deliver a fresh shot of cold to the lower 48.

Here Are The Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: B.C. will see very heavy snow this weekend. WA and OR Cascades pick up heavy “cement” as snow levels start high and slowly drop. Same general setup holds through next week.

Sierra: Snow—perhaps a foot—Saturday night/Sunday Tahoe regio. Snow levels dropping through the event. Lighter snows southern Sierra. Some light snow next week; main storm track to north.

Northern Rockies: Moderate snow will develop later this weekend from Pacific trough. Wasatch, Tetons and points north looking snowy next week.

Central and southern Rockies: Dry weekend. Light snow early next week central, just snow showers south.

Midwest: Light snow north this weekend, mixed precip WI and lower MI. Another shot at snow later next week.

Northeast/QB: Long duration light to moderate snow event this weekend, north of I-90. Elevation snow between I-80 and I-90. Snow south to WV along Appalachian spine. Another storm late next week.

A Comeback For The East And Midwest, More Pow For The West.

I spent the first two days of this week with fellow members of the North American Snowsports Journalists Association at Windham Mountain,  NY, where the crew did an outstanding job of providing a fun surface in the wake of a mid-season meltdown last Sunday. One of the presentations was by Masterfit University, an outfit that boasts having the best boot fitters in the world. It was a fascinating seminar, and after spending a couple of hours one on one with Windham’s Masterfit representative, I came away convinced that if you want to maximize your skiing, you absolutely should find a Masterfit shop in your area.

While this week started on an unseasonably mild note in the East, the skies kept unloading in parts of the West. A persistent series of low pressure centers loaded with Pacific moisture has utterly buried resorts in Washington, Oregon, northern Idaho, the Tetons, and northern Wasatch in the past week with anywhere from three to six feet of new snow. Lookout Pass in Idaho checked in with a 101 inch storm total! Lighter snows fell elsewhere in the West, and if you are heading in that direction, you can’t make a bad choice right now.

In the Midwest and East, a major pattern change is getting underway, one that delivered some fresh snow in the mountains of the Northeast late this week, with another round coming this weekend. For the first time in weeks, once the low pressure center moves through the Great Lakes and East, a bonafide cold air mass will follow in its wake, leading to great snowmaking conditions and productive lake effect snow in favored snowbelt areas, especially the upper peninsula of Michigan.

Over the next 10 to 14 days, temperatures will be stepping down over the eastern half of the country as an upper level trough becomes the dominant jet stream feature. At the same time, an upper level ridge will be found more of the time in the Northwest, so the “snow hose” that has been pointed at that region lately will back off quite a bit. The southern Sierra and southern Rockies could see periodic snows as disturbances in the southern branch of the jet move through that part of the country. If a southern branch disturbance manages to phase with energy in the eastern trough, we could see a major storm in the East before too long. The pieces will all be there soon and hopefully they will come together. For your viewing pleasure, here is a forecast map of snowfall for the next 15 days. Don’t focus on one specific spot as much as take note of the breadth of the area, particularly over the eastern half of the country, where significant snow is forecast. The pattern is rounding into shape for meaningful snow events, but the devil will be in the details.

There is reason to believe that once the colder pattern gets established in the Midwest and East, it will remain in control much of the time going forward. My analog years suggest it, as does this jet stream map for two weeks from now:

The broad trough that you see for late this month looks cold and stormy to me.

Here AreThe Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Another rather snowy week coming up, but the recent amazing rate of snowfall will start to back down as an upper ridge takes up residence.

Cascades and Sierra:  Snowy (Cascades) into the middle of next week, although snow levels will be a little high late this weekend before settling back down. Lighter snows Tahoe area. Snowfalls back off late this month as ridging develops.

Rockies: Dry weekend into midweek when a new trough will bring some light snow. Longer term, central and southern Rockies favored for snow thanks to disturbances in the southern branch of the jet stream

Midwest: Arctic air dominates for the foreseeable future. Each frontal passage sets off lake effect snow. Great spell of snowmaking temps underway and conditionS.  Trail counts will be improving.

Northeast/QB: Moderate snow event this weekend (north of I-80) starts the comeback. Great snowmaking temps for several days in the wake of the storm. Another sizeable snow threat next weekend. Conditions and trail counts will be getting better each day until further notice.

The West Continues To Luck Out, Cold Coming East By Month End.

Despite a wildly changeable run of weather in the East recently, I managed to get two days of wonderful winter turns in early this week. It snowed on Monday at Sugarbush as I skied packed powder with my son. Wednesday at Killington surfaces were just about perfect packed powder early on and then an arctic cold front arrived. It brought fresh snow: three inches in 30 minutes! An absolute whiteout that gave me a chance to focus on my toes with each turn, a method I was taught decades ago to deal with low visibility. It still works!

Changeable weather will continue to rule short term in the East while much of the West continues snowy, but that imbalance will be changing in the near future. The past couple of weeks, the jet stream maps across the continent have featured a trough centered over the West and a ridge over the East. The trough has produced tons of snow, particularly in the Northwest and coastal ranges of British Columbia.

As this week comes to a close, another storm will cut southeast from the Gulf of Alaska and dump on B.C. as well as the WA and OR Cascades. Lighter snows will reach down to Tahoe as well as the northern and central Rockies. Over the eastern half of the country, a low will cut northeastward through the Great Lakes and into Ontario and Quebec.  That’s great news for the resorts of Michigan, where significant snow will result. Further east, the northern track forced by the strength of the southeast ridge means another mild, wet event this weekend before colder air returns Monday. The “cutter” track is consistent with the current warm state of the MJO, as discussed last week.

Changes are coming, though, and by the final week of the month, the changes will be dramatic across the country. A pool of very cold air has been building in central and western Canada and due to the density of that air mass, it will start to spread southward and eastward. Here is a look at a forecast for the 5,000 foot temperature anomalies for ten days from now that I agree with.

The 5,000 foot level is a forecasting proxy for surface temps, and you can see that a large mass of colder than normal air will cover much of the eastern half of the country by 19^th or so. Meanwhile, the West will turn a little warmer than normal, but not until after some of the arctic air descends through the Rockies later next week. At the jet stream level, the setup will flip, and we will find a trough in the East and a flat ridge out west.  Here is a reasonable jet stream forecast for the same time.

Now, any change in air masses and jet stream features of this magnitude will come with a stormy transition, so there is reason for optimism for eastern snow, at least north of the Mason Dixon line, from late next week onward. Once the new pattern settles in, I expect it to dominate through the bulk of rest of the winter, due to the anticipated influence of the warm water pool in the northeast Pacific Ocean.

Here are the regional details.

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: Another heavy snowfall is coming this weekend, light snow in AB.

Periodic lighter snows will continue next week as arctic air presses southward.

Cascades and Sierra: Snowy weekend with heavy amounts in OR, tapering down further south in CA.

Lighter snow continues next week as it turns windy and colder.

Rockies: Northern Rockies catch light snow this weekend but as several upper level short wavelength disturbances move through the first half of next week, persistent light to moderate snow will provide daily “refills”. Each successive trough will draw arctic air further south, reaching the Tetons by mid-week. Light snow in central Rockies first half of next week.

Midwest: Messy weekend storm lower Lakes, snowy in northern Lakes, narrow ice storm in the middle.

Some light snow northern Lakes from a Clipper or two next week.

Northeast/QB: Another cutter brings wet and icy weather to the northern mountains of NY/New England this weekend, snow up in Quebec. Renewed snowmaking and light Clipper snow next week, with bigger storm threat late. Pattern will look much better a week from now.