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The Pattern Persists.

In the past two weeks I have enjoyed many days on the snow, and a couple of them turned out feeling like reunions with old girlfriends. First came an afternoon at West Mountain in Glens Falls, NY, where new owners and $6 million in investments have turned a sleepy hill into a dynamic mountain that embraces racing for all ages. Got my skis tuned there, and the result was phenomenal!

Then I caught Wildcat, NH on a packed powder bluebird day. The long winding cruisers loaded with natural mini-features brought back memories of cutting high school in Rhode Island for twofer days on Wednesdays. The views of Mt. Washington across the street are beyond stunning. Wildcat summit view is the best in the East, IMO.

So, where are we going with the weather the next couple of weeks? The pattern has been rather persistent for weeks on end now, with abundant snow piling up over much of the West, the exception is the central and southern Sierra, where storms of significance have been rare this winter. In the Midwest and East, “persistent” has had a different meaning with mild and cold air masses taking turns marching through every four to six days. Storm tracks have favored a “cutter” type, where the primary low center moves through the eastern Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence River Valley. A coastal secondary storm has formed with many of the cutters, but usually quite late—south of Long Island or Cape Cod—which has helped boost snowfall totals in New Hampshire and Maine as the low center heads for the Maritimes. However, at resorts further west, in VT, NY, and PA, the cutter has been more influential and most have produced a “variety pack” in terms of precip types.

There are a number of indices that help me put together longer range forecasts, such as the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). For the most part, these indices have sent mixed signals in what has turned out to be a tough winter for forecasting over the eastern half of the country. The West has been much easier: ”Snow and more snow”.

One index that has performed admirably has been the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). When it is positive, we tend to see a trough over Alaska, which helps drive moisture into the NW, which accounts for the bountiful snow, but that Pacific air is mild when it reaches the lower elevations further east. When the EPO is negative, an upper ridge pokes northward to Alaska and helps tap colder air from the Arctic regions. This forecast of the EPO telegraphs the changeable nature of the temps going forward.

Following the green line, the neutral look to start with accounts for the chill of this weekend, with the rise next week foretelling a milder spell, followed by a drop and colder weather thereafter, a sequence that mimics what we have experienced for quite a while.

The decade of the 10’s was the most active on record in terms of sizable coastal snowstorms in the East, but the first winter of the new decade has pitched a shutout to this point. That said, there are signs that the forces might conspire to bring the Northeast a late season dump during the colder dip in the EPO. Here is a look at the European forecast for the 7th of March. A man can dream can’t he?

Here Are The Regional Details

Northwest U.S./western Canada: Onshore flow from the Pacific will keep the snow coming, broken periodically by a short wavelength ridge passing through. Many powder days coming through mid-March.

Sierra: Some much needed snow is coming to this region early in the week of the 2^nd. Another shot comes along about a week later.

Northern Rockies: I don’t see a whopper on the horizon, but a moderate snowfall will come along every few days in the next two weeks

Central and southern Rockies: Light to moderate snow event 3^rd-5^th followed by upper level ridging and bluebird skies late next week.

Midwest: Lake effect snow early in snowbelt areas. Clipper systems bring additional snow during EPO dip.

Northeast/Quebec: Back and forth temperature ride continues into mid-March. Snowfall highly storm track/elevation dependent. Some signs of coastal storm around March 6-7 starting to show up.

Looks Like A Promising Couple Of Weeks.

It has been a terrific week of skiing and riding in most of the U.S. and Canada and I have been lucky enough to squeeze in a couple of days. Loon Mountain on Tuesday was wonderful; miles and miles of packed powder and views of the White Mountains that are hard to beat. Packed powder, sunshine, and light winds at Stratton on Thursday added up to another awesome day.

The pattern looks very promising for the next couple of weeks, but it is not without its challenges. The primary challenge arises from a jet stream development over the northeastern Pacific that quite honestly, I had not anticipated. With a sizable pool of warmer than normal water over that part of the Pacific, I expected an upper level ridge to be a persistent feature that would extend northward to Alaska. Instead, a trough is parked over Alaska and the counter clockwise circulation around it cuts off cold air from the high latitudes and pumps milder Pacific air into the southern Canada/U.S. pattern instead. Temps will be above normal over Canada for the next ten days or so as flat ridging dominates there. Does that mean that it can’t snow over the northern tier of states? Not at all, because we are at the climatologically coldest time of year. However, each storm will be a nail-biter for snow vs. rain in the Midwest, northern mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Here is a forecast map for the jet stream across the continent for later Saturday, Jan 25, that illustrates the issues.

The trough off the west coast that stretches northward to Alaska is tapping relatively mild air and sending it into the Northwest and mountains of B.C. There is a ton of moisture available, but snow levels will be an issue in WA and OR this weekend…not so further north in B.C. The moisture will flow east and the northern and central Rockies will benefit with moderate amounts of new snow later this weekend.

The red shades that you see across Canada indicate the extent of the ridge that will play a major role in this weekend’s event in the Northeast. Although it is mild relative to normal over the eastern half of Canada, that air is still cold enough to support snow. Also, upper ridges support surface high pressure centers that can deliver low level cold air into the path of a storm. Just such a high will be present over Quebec this weekend and it will help produce snow in the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, and into the mountains of Maine. Further south it will turn into more of an elevation-dependent tossup. The upper ridge will help suppress the trough you see over eastern Ohio and it will track east…favorable for the snow to the north. The upper ridge will also keep the surface low from racing out to sea, so the snow will be a 48-60 hour event. Here is a snowfall forecast map through Monday night…it is great to see that significant snow will reach southward to West Virginia resorts…they are running a little lean right now.

Longer term it looks like the same general pattern will remain in place for the next 10-14 days, with another eastern storm in the cards late next week. After that, the western ridge should poke north far enough to deliver a fresh shot of cold to the lower 48.

Here Are The Regional Details

Northwest U.S./Western Canada: B.C. will see very heavy snow this weekend. WA and OR Cascades pick up heavy “cement” as snow levels start high and slowly drop. Same general setup holds through next week.

Sierra: Snow—perhaps a foot—Saturday night/Sunday Tahoe regio. Snow levels dropping through the event. Lighter snows southern Sierra. Some light snow next week; main storm track to north.

Northern Rockies: Moderate snow will develop later this weekend from Pacific trough. Wasatch, Tetons and points north looking snowy next week.

Central and southern Rockies: Dry weekend. Light snow early next week central, just snow showers south.

Midwest: Light snow north this weekend, mixed precip WI and lower MI. Another shot at snow later next week.

Northeast/QB: Long duration light to moderate snow event this weekend, north of I-90. Elevation snow between I-80 and I-90. Snow south to WV along Appalachian spine. Another storm late next week.