This past week brought several rounds of fresh snow from Alberta Clipper systems to the northern Lakes and the higher peaks of the Northeast and as this weekend unfolds, new snow will fall over much of the West.  I spent a couple of days at Stowe, where several inches of powder piled up both Tuesday and Wednesday nights.  Conditions were outstanding, and I am happy to report that at least this Vail resort had its act together, as both lift ops and food service were close to normal.

The overall pattern has become very active the past couple of weeks, with a fight between Canadian cold and southeastern warmth causing numerous storms to rapidly cross the middle and eastern parts of the country.  The West is still quiet overall, as following the record December snowfalls have been followed by two very dry months.  But now that we have moved into March, the wavelengths of troughs and ridges tend to slowly shrink(shorten), which makes it possible for both the East and the West to be stormy at the same time. 

The first 4-5 days of this discussion period will see an upper trough dominant in the West, with a milder ridge calling the shots over the east half of the country.  Here is a jet stream forecast for Monday the 7^th that illustrates…

With a strong ridge sitting just off the coast of the Pac NW, there will be a good supply of cold delivered into the West.  A storm earlier this week brought moisture to the NW, but it wasn’t cold enough to fend off relatively high snow levels…that will not be an issue this weekend.  The weekend storm will have energy in both the northern and southern branches of the jet stream, so new snow is in the cards from the Oregon Cascades all the way down to New Mexico.  This won’t be a blockbuster, but it will be most welcome, I am sure.

If you take another look at the jet stream map, you will see a broad southwesterly flow aloft from west Texas to the St. Lawrence Valley.  That is roughly the track that a low pressure center will take late this weekend, but a low that follows a couple of days later will track further south, so weekend mixed precip in the Lakes and Northeast will be followed by a round of snow about Tuesday or so. 

Longer term, the WPO and EPO indices that I discussed in my last installment are both headed for negative territory very soon, signaling a return to an upper trough and colder pattern dominating the eastern half of the country.  Here are Exhibits A and B… 

Exhibit A is the likely jet stream setup on the Ides of March, when a deep, chilly trough will cover the country from the Plains to the east coast.  Exhibit B is a map of the 5,000 foot temperature anomalies at that time…a proxy for surface temps.  It looks colder than normal from the Lakes to the Northeast…the southern Appalachians, too.  Right now, it looks to me that the cold pattern will hang on through the rest of March and on into April…more on that next

Northwest U.S./Western Canada:  After some early weekend snow, much of next week looks quiet, aside from a round of light snow around Wednesday.  Week Two looks active, but snow levels will be elevated.

Sierra:  Southern branch of jet brings moderate snowfall Saturday…hard to get snow into this region thereafter. 

Rockies:  Light snow this weekend in the north.  Higher amounts in UT, CO, and northern NM into next week.  Quiet until the following week after that.

Midwest:  Snow this weekend in far north.  Colder pattern evolves midweek onward next week. 

Mid Atlantic/Southeast:  Warm week has been rough south of the M/D line.  Turn to colder next week should help sustain the season.

Northeast/QB:  Messy system Sunday.  Colder system Tuesday.  Colder again by later next week…prospects for snow improve after that.