Skiing Weatherman: Winter Weigh-In Time
What Does A La Nina Winter Mean For Snow Sports?
View of Mt Washington from Wildcat, Oct 18
After seeing a web cam shot of snow-covered Mt. Washington, NH this past weekend, I quickly contracted a case of “calendar shock”, realizing that it was time to submit some ideas on where I think this winter is headed, weatherwise. Co-Publisher Mike Maginn wrote a nice piece on La Nina earlier this month and indeed, this will be a La Nina winter. La Nina is the cold water cousin of El Nino, with the waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean running below normal now and likely to remain that way through much of the upcoming winter. What does that mean in terms of sensible weather downstream over the U.S. and Canada? Well, there are different flavors of La Nina, based largely on how cool, relative to normal, those tropical waters are. This looks to be a weak to moderate La Nina, and in general, the storm tracks during a La Nina winter look like this:
You will notice that most of the storm tracks are over the northern half of the country, closer to the source of cold air that makes those systems productive in terms of snow. La Ninas are not as friendly as El Ninos to skiers and riders over the southwestern quadrant of the country, thus, the lack of an established tendency. Well before the first turns of any season, friends and clients often ask me for guidance on where to head in the West for a winter trip. During a La Nina, I steer them north of I-70, where the busier storm tracks lead to more snow and more consistent conditions. There are exceptions, but the resort snowfall data that Mike included in his article supports that idea.
As far as La Nina winters over the Midwest and East are concerned, we often see a battle between a cold jet stream level trough over the center of the continent and a warm southeastern ridge. A preview of that set up will develop during the last week of this month. Take a look at this forecast for the jet stream valid on 10/28.
During winter, large dips in the middle of the country will act as a receptacle for cold air moving southward out of Canada. As troughs interact with warmer air along the Gulf and in the Southeast, storms often take shape and then move northeastward along the western slopes of the Appalachians, as you can see on the storm track map above. These storms bring snow to resorts in the Great Lakes, both from the low pressure center, and from backlash lake effect snow once the low move up into Canada. The storm track that you see east of the Appalachians comes from systems that redevelop east of the mountains as the upper trough moves toward the coast. These are known as “secondary” low pressure centers, formed as the upper level support translates over the mountains and taps into energy from the waters of the Atlantic. These secondary storms represent the best opportunities for meaningful snowfall at the resorts of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast during a La Nina.
There are other factors that are correlated with subtle but potentially significant changes in these storm tracks, one of which is the solar cycle, and I will discuss those factors in the coming weeks. For now, though, I am most bullish on the prospects for the West, north of I-7o and the upper Midwest. I am guardedly optimistic about the Northeast, where temperatures should work out slightly milder than normal but with above normal snowfall via some sizable storms. The anticipated southeastern ridge will likely pose some problems for the Mid-Atlantic and especially for the Southeast.
This Week In SeniorsSkiing.com (Oct. 23)
Classified Launch, Response, and Advice, Chile Season Review, Serious Question For You, Mystery, Maine Guide Advice, How To Ski With COVID.
Last week, we launched our new Classified Ad feature with a special introductory $1 for 30 days offer. We are happy that there are readers who are posting their ads and hopefully getting some responses.
Here’s what Bill Cohen, San Jose, CA, had to say about his ad posting experience. Boy, did that make us smile.
Hey, just wanted to thank you guys for setting up a classified listing program. I just posted my first ad (CHRISTIE LODGE ROOM AVAILABLE) and wanted to let you know it was EASY, FAST, covered all the bases, and hopefully will get my extra room filled! So thanks for providing this and I hope others will take advantage of both POSTING and READING the classifieds – GREAT EXTRA SERVICE to the Senior Skiing community. Bill Cohen in San Jose, CA
Based on what we’ve seen so far, here is some advice:
- Post a picture with your ad. It is easy to upload a .jpeg or .png photo. In fact, you can post more than one, a gallery if you wish.
- Be sure to include any details re: shipments or transactions. Many readers are using PayPal as a payment method. It is simple and easy to setup.
- Think about your headline. Make it short and get to the point.
If you want to view classified ads already posted, click on the blue menu bar, second box from the left.
As more hikers explore the White Mountains, calls for help climb, too.
REI’s checklist of equipment to bring for day hikes is definitely worth bookmarking.
Finally, we’re reprising an fantastic resource for those heading to the woods. It’s a valuable document you can download and print out, published by the State of Maine, by Maine guides. Alone In The Woods is a homespun collection of advice for surviving in the woods if you get lost. With more hikers headed out leaf peeping and conditioning-walking, this is an important source of information. The illustrations may be a bit cartoon-ish, but the information is valuable and might save your life. Click here to read and download.
This Week
Our Question For You this week takes a personal bend as our editor asks readers who have experienced a joint replacement how they returned to the sport. Why personal? He’s facing a hip replacement in January. Gulp.
Correspondent Don Burch offers some basic advice for getting ready for the season of skiing with COVID. As Henry V said in Shakespeare’s play, “All things be ready of our minds be so.”
Correspondent Casey Earle provides a summary of the ski season in Chile in the times of COVID. As we have seen from reports from Australia, the virus has had a heavy hand in how the resorts operated this past season. Those constraints and a lousy snow season made for a fair to middling snow season. What can we learn from both these south of the Ecuador experiences?
Mystery Glimpse is trying something different this week. Correspondent Don Burch has curated a video of some vintage home movies taken in the 50s and 60s. Can you spot the locations?
Thanks for reading SeniorsSkiing.com. Tell your friends and remember there are more of us every day and we aren’t going away.
Short Swings!
Cassandra
Cassandra came to mind last week as we took our first flight since the craziness began.
In case you missed that part of Greek Mythology, after Apollo gave Cassandra the gift of prophecy, he turned it to a curse, causing her prophecies not to be believed.
Stay with me on this one.
The flight was one familiar to many Eastern skiers: SLC to JFK.
We geared up with face masks, face shields, and wipes.
Pam had changed flights so many times, even Delta was confused. At one point, she upgraded us to First, a luxury generally reserved for Frequent Flier miles and overseas travel. The logic: last on/first off.
This was our first encounter with Salt Lake’s new airport, which is still under construction. Our terminal was big, beautiful and empty.
Granted, the paucity of travelers contributed to the speed and efficiency of the place, but I had the feeling that, even when busy, this airport will be on top of its game.
Next stop was the Delta Sky Club. More big and beautiful and filled with signs and notices reminding people to wear masks. Even the WIFI password carried the message: wearmask.
If you choose to continue reading, it’s only fair to disclose that I believe in and respect science. I understand that we live in what some have identified as a post-truth society and have been exposed to its supporting arguments. There may be some truth to post-truth, but I still weigh-in on the side of science.
Back to the Delta Sky Club, which, as we waited for our flight, became more populated.
At any given time, about two-thirds of the travelers were masked and sitting far apart. The rest were not.
On a trip to the restroom, I counted 19 maskless travelers. A few had an empty glass in front of them – which, in their minds, must have qualified them to slip under Delta’s rule of not requiring a mask “while actively eating of drinking.”
I spoke with a Delta supervisor who explained that in the month since the new Club opened, it had become increasingly difficult to get passengers to wear masks.
Not so on the plane, where people were mask-compliant.
What does this experience have to do with skiing?
Many of you rely on planes to get to mountains. Indeed, most Western resorts rely on airlines to get skiers to their lifts and lodges.
If people, out of selfishness, petulance or a sense of not wanting to follow what is good for themselves and for their communities, choose not to follow scientific advice, our return to the “new normal” will be delayed even more.
Which brings me back to Cassandra. She spoke the truth about what would happen. But she was afflicted with the curse that others wouldn’t believe her.
I write this knowing it conflicts with other points of view. Most SeniorsSkiing.com readers have more ski days behind them than they do ahead. Speaking for myself, I want to enjoy as many of them as I can, as healthily as I can.
It’s time to believe Cassandra.
Flurries (Almost) Everywhere
Tuckerman’s Ravine in Spring.
The season is about to start. Over the past week (even earlier) snow fell at higher elevations throughout the West and elsewhere, even Tuckerman’s Ravine on Mt Washington (NH). Snow guns are operational. Lifts are running across the Alps. One Scandinavian area unpacked snow saved from last year and spread it on a slope for early race training.
First North American Ski Area Now Open
Wild Mountain, Taylors Falls, Minnesota, is the first North American area to open for the 20-21 season. Four chairs and multiple rope tows service a variety of terrain with a short vertical. Mt Norquay Banff, Alberta, will open Saturday.
Fire Destroys Large Fischer Ski Factory
The factory, in Mukachevo, Ukraine, manufactured 25% of all Alpine and Nordic skis sold internationally. In addition to Fischer, brands made there include Rossignol, Scott, Alpina, Splitkein and Tecno. About 1,500 were employed. The fire occurred Tuesday, October 13.
The Skiing Gypsy
Murray Sandman (aka The Skiing Gypsy) is a 70+ Aussie blogging about his multi-continental ski adventures. He first contacted us following the series a few seasons ago about skiing the Dolomites. Our trip was organized by Inspired Italy, the superb and reasonably priced local outfitter. Murray emailed his DIY approach, which you can find – along with other experiences and advice – at https://gypsyskitravels.wordpress.com.
Great New Winter Clothing Site
Orsden, which made excellent parkas and pants, has pivoted to a curated e-commerce site with wonderful-looking women’s and men’s casual winter clothing. Some of the brands will be familiar; others less so. If you’re seeking something to relieve your Covid-confined existence or to brighten someone else’s special day, click here.
Special Occasion Gondolas
The Gondola Shop’s Sauna: only $25,7000.
The Gondola Shop in Fruita, Colorado, buys and repurposes gondola cars. They design and rent them out for weddings, transform them into saunas, and are in process of preparing 20 or so as individual dining rooms that will sit in Telluride’s Town of Mountain Village.
End Is Near
Living in the US? You may be on the receiving end of an endless stream of fund-raising appeals from candidates for office. A Washington, D.C. friend refers to it as “silly season.” Election Day is upon us. We cast our mail ballots before leaving Utah last week. Most people our age fully appreciate the importance of participating in the system by voting. Skiing can wait. It’s time to cast your vote.
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