The Skiing Weatherman: Haves And Have Nots
The Difference Between East and West Is Remarkable.
Over the past few weeks, I have shared with you some of my winter forecasting tricks of the trade but now it is time to get down to business and do some actual forecasting.
The pattern change that was foretold a couple of weeks ago by the re-curvature of a typhoon east of Japan is well underway (The “Typhoon Rule”). By this weekend an unseasonably cold upper trough will cover the eastern half of the country. The air that the trough delivers will be of arctic origin, and, although it travels over ground that is not yet covered with snow, it will still be cold enough for some productive snowmaking in the taller mountains of the Northeast and as far south as resorts in the central Appalachians.
Better yet, the cold air will rush in on the heels of a low pressure system that will generate a swath of snow from the Great Lakes eastward to the interior Northeast. Lake effect snow will kick in downwind of Erie and Ontario for a short time, but because the system will be progressive, that backside snow won’t last very long. This looks like a three- to six- inch event from the Adirondacks eastward through the Greens and Whites and on into the mountains of Maine. That may not seem like much, but that first inch of machine made snow is laid down a lot faster when it lands on crystals and not leaves and dirt. The cold temps this weekend will help to chill the soil, too.
On a broader scale, the developing pattern will be one of the “haves” and the “have nots” with respect to cold weather and prospects for snow. Here is what the jet stream pattern is likely to resemble late next week
The deep trough will cover much of the eastern half of the country, with a strong ridge covering the waters of the eastern Pacific. Clockwise flow around the ridge will combine with counterclockwise flow around the trough to tap into air masses from far to the north. This setup is ideal for the delivery of cold to the Midwest and East. This next map shows the expected temperature anomalies at the five thousand foot level in a week from now. That altitude level is a proxy for forecasting surface temps.
The purple shading tells me that the air will be plenty cold for snowmaking and natural snow opportunities from the upper Midwest through the Northeast. That takes us to the middle of the month, but my sense is that the same general pattern will persist until after the 20th or so, and perhaps close to Thanksgiving. From time to time, smaller scale disturbances embedded in the flow around the trough will spin through the Lakes and into the East, and those systems will represent the best shots at natural snow over the next couple of weeks.
That is the good news. While eastern North America will be unseasonably cold for the foreseeable future, thanks to the trough, the not-so-good news is that the ridge over the Pacific will keep temps above normal for the most part from the Continental Divide westward, as the temperature anomaly map suggests.
Some snowmaking will be possible at times in the higher elevations of the West, but natural snow will be hard to come by in this pattern. In the heart of winter, there is enough cold air around for both the West and the East to be cold simultaneously, but we are still six weeks away from the START of winter, so we are playing the game of “haves” and “have nots”. For now, it is “advantage Midwest and East”.
This Week In SeniorsSkiing.com (Nov. 1)
Collecting Resort Safety Scores, Knowing The NAO, Outdoor Therapy For Vets, Tow Boat, Lessons Learned From Coaching Seniors.
We continue to receive comments about the skier safety issue we raised when we published our “Things That Piss Us Off” findings from our Spring Survey. Clearly, we’ve struck a vein of passion about the unsafe skier issue.
And as you have probably read in last week’s edition, the National Ski Patrol has stated the responsibility for enforcing the Skier’s Code of Responsibility is up to the resorts. Although some readers were disappointed with that response, when you think about it, it makes sense. NSP are volunteers at a resort, and the resort usually maintains a paid staff of patrollers who administer safety policy. However, as we have heard from the comments, some resorts are good at this, and some aren’t.
The answer to that question is partly taking form through the work of the Snow Sports Safety Foundation which was featured in last week’s Short Swings. This non-profit provides safety ratings for ski resorts, currently displaying “Resort Scores” for some California, Nevada, and Colorado resorts.
The question now turns to who among the many and diverse resorts are serious about lifting the tickets and passes of out-of-control, hit-and-run, high-risk skiers and boarders and who is, well, less serious.
Some resorts understand the value of enforcing the Skier’s Code of Responsibility. For instance, Vail Resorts, at Vail in Colorado, displays an electronic scoreboard of how many season passes or tickets have been lifted for reckless or dangerous skiing or boarding. So, this is a serious issue being addressed by some resorts. Emphasis on “some”.
SeniorsSkiing.com is planning to collaborate with Snow Sports Safety Foundation in the coming months on its efforts to bring skier and boarder safety into focus. Watch this space for upcoming developments.
This Week
We know that many SeniorsSkiing.com readers are veterans of the armed forces. This week, correspondent and XCSkiResorts.com publisher Roger Lohr reports on a number of programs that bring disabled vets into the outdoors for therapy. Click here.
Our Mystery Glimpse presents an odd vehicle for getting skiers up and around a ski resort somewhere out West. And yes, the snow-dusted mountain top photo from last week was indeed Killington. Our thanks to a friendly pilot who happened to snap a great aerial shot of the mountain.
Our UK-based ski coach correspondent Bob Trueman has a really interesting article on the five things he’s learned about teaching seniors. Bob has a unique approach to ski “coaching”, based on a cognitive understanding of what the body is being asked to do.
The Skiing Weatherman, Herb Stevens, introduces us to a meteorological concept: The NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. The strength and relative position of the NAO between the Iceland Low and the Azores High determines the kind of weather we will be getting on the east coast. Fascinating stuff. Click here.
If you have any updates and/or corrections to our listing of 157 Ski Resorts in North America that offer free or really big bargain discounts for seniors, please send to info@seniorsskiing.com. To locate the listing of Free or Big Bargain Resorts, go to COMMUNITY>SUBSCRIBER-ONLY CONTENT and scroll down.
Once again, thanks for reading SeniorsSkiing.com. Tell your friends and remember there are more of us every day, and we aren’t going away.
Short Swings!
If you’re accustomed to US prices, Canada offers great skiing value. The current exchange rate guarantees it.
Skiing in Japan also is reasonable, but there’s the cost of getting there. Some clubs have reasonably priced all-inclusive packages. This one to Japan organized by the Baltimore Ski Club looks like it will be a lot of fun.
And skiing the Italian Alps is a great bargain. I just checked non-stops from NY and Boston for mid February. The prices are under $500. Chicago, Philadelphia and Salt Lake cost more, but they’re still reasonable.
When you book with Alpskitour, the rest of your trip – transfers, hotel, skiing, guides, some meals, equipment, lifts, transportation to different resorts – will be around $3500 per person. My wife and I went with them last season. It was one of the two best ski experiences we ever had.
We stayed in a nice hotel in the center of Saint Vincent, a small, scenic city in the Aosta Valley. From there we took a scenic ride each day to different resorts in Italy, France, and Switzerland.
Alpskitour puts together small groups of intermediate and advanced skiers and takes them for five days of skiing in the best resorts in the Aosta Valley. Mauro Cevolo and Andrea Jory, who run Alpskitour, guide you in Breuiel-Cervinia, Zermatt, Monterosa, and Courmayer, among others.
They choose the best conditions and most empty slopes for each day. If it’s foggy at one end of this spectacularly scenic valley, they’ll take you to a resort where it just snowed. Ditto if one is too crowded. There are so many areas to choose from that every day offers fantastic conditions.
And they know all the right places to stop for a snack or for lunch and all the right people to assure a warm welcome wherever you’re skiing.
The other best experience was a few hours east in the Dolomites. There, we joined an Inspired Italy Ski Safari. Inspired Italy is run by a small crew headed by Tim Hudson. He and his team are intimately familiar with Dolomiti SuperSki, the vast, interconnected ski circuit with hundreds of miles of runs, served by every conceivable uphill lift and dotted with restaurants and refugios, the small mountain hotels known for their cuisine and wine cellars. Inspired Italy also specializes in small groups. The cost of a seven day trip, not counting airport transfers and lunches, is about $2500. I just visited the Inspired Italy website to check availability. One slot is left for 2020. If you’re interested in this fantastic skiing experience, book soon for 2021.
Reasonably priced trips to Europe, Canada, US resorts and, next summer, New Zealand, are available through 70+ Ski Club. Groups tend to be larger — a great way to meet and ski with other older skiers. 70+ was started in the Seventies by Lloyd Lambert, the famed Northeast ski journalist. At one point, his son joined the operation. Now, Richard Lambert, Lloyd’s grandson heads 70+ Ski Club. There’s a modest membership fee, which provides access to many well-organized and equally well-priced trips throughout the season.
The 5 Habits of Smart (Adventure) Travelers
Global+Rescue, which provides medical evacuation insurance and other services, recently issued this guidance for “smart adventure travelers.” 1) Know Your Limits: This includes a link to the (humiliating for me) interactive Mont Blanc Guides Fitness Checker. 2) Willingness to Adjust plans, itineraries, etc. 3) Collecting Information from Multiple Sources (i.e. not relying on one expert’s advice). 4) Selecting Guides Carefully. (I’ve had good and pretty bad guide experiences). 5) Practicing Non-Stop Awareness. This applies wherever we roam. For the complete report, click here.
Highest Eastern Areas
I always assumed that the highest Eastern ski areas were in the Northeast. Of the ten highest areas on the East Coast, the top four are in North Carolina. They are Beech Mountain (5506’), Cataloochee(5400’), Wolf Ridge (4600’), and Sugar Mountain (4432’), The next highest area is Whiteface in Lake Placid, NY, topping out at 4396’.
NW Sales Connection
Unfortunately, we neglected to link the NW Sales Connection ad to its website. That’s now corrected. The company is a terrific resource for reasonably priced women’s skiwear from XS to 6X. The site also features men’s big and tall ski pants and parkas and many options for children’s skiwear. Click on the ad or here to visit the website.
Perfect Gift For Senior Skiers
As we approach the season, keep The Bootster in mind for yourself and older skiers on your gift list. It’s a $25 device that effortlessly helps foot enter ski boot. Nicely designed and handmade, it’s a gift that keeps on giving.
Haunted Ski Resorts
Charlie Leocha’s work was brought to my attention by Jocelyn Curtis of the Baltimore Ski Club. He spoke to the group about “haunted ski resorts.” Given that Halloween has just passed I’m sharing this article Charlie wrote some years back. It’s less about the areas themselves than the spirits occupying their lodges.
Silly Skiers Toy
https://www.facebook.com/judith.brunvand/videos/10221155652463660/
A few weeks ago after reading a piece here on the Silly Skiers toy from the Seventies, Jan Brunvand, retired University of Utah professor and frequent SeniorsSkiing.com contributor , found one in his basement. He fixed it up and sent this video. Note his SeniorsSkiing.com hat. Thanks, Jan!!!
Nice Video From Salomon
Almost everything Salomon does is done well. The company’s skis are generally terrific. It’s clothing is nicely styled and lasts forever. And its promotional videos are interesting. This one, featuring skier Cody Townsend, takes us to a mountain in the La Sal range east of Moab, Utah. He goes with a few Native Americans, who explain their intimate and ancestral relationship to the mountains. Watch here.
Dave Barry on Skiing
Humorist Dave Barry wrote about his first skiing experience in 2004. An updated version was published by The Miami Herald in 2012. Like much of his material, it presents an amusing point of view. Click here.
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