The Skiing Weatherman: Snow West, Maybe East
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The Pattern Persists.
In the past two weeks I have enjoyed many days on the snow, and a couple of them turned out feeling like reunions with old girlfriends. First came an afternoon at West Mountain in Glens Falls, NY, where new owners and $6 million in investments have turned a sleepy hill into a dynamic mountain that embraces racing for all ages. Got my skis tuned there, and the result was phenomenal!
Then I caught Wildcat, NH on a packed powder bluebird day. The long winding cruisers loaded with natural mini-features brought back memories of cutting high school in Rhode Island for twofer days on Wednesdays. The views of Mt. Washington across the street are beyond stunning. Wildcat summit view is the best in the East, IMO.
So, where are we going with the weather the next couple of weeks? The pattern has been rather persistent for weeks on end now, with abundant snow piling up over much of the West, the exception is the central and southern Sierra, where storms of significance have been rare this winter. In the Midwest and East, “persistent” has had a different meaning with mild and cold air masses taking turns marching through every four to six days. Storm tracks have favored a “cutter” type, where the primary low center moves through the eastern Great Lakes toward the St. Lawrence River Valley. A coastal secondary storm has formed with many of the cutters, but usually quite late—south of Long Island or Cape Cod—which has helped boost snowfall totals in New Hampshire and Maine as the low center heads for the Maritimes. However, at resorts further west, in VT, NY, and PA, the cutter has been more influential and most have produced a “variety pack” in terms of precip types.
There are a number of indices that help me put together longer range forecasts, such as the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index), MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation), AO (Arctic Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation). For the most part, these indices have sent mixed signals in what has turned out to be a tough winter for forecasting over the eastern half of the country. The West has been much easier: ”Snow and more snow”.
One index that has performed admirably has been the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation). When it is positive, we tend to see a trough over Alaska, which helps drive moisture into the NW, which accounts for the bountiful snow, but that Pacific air is mild when it reaches the lower elevations further east. When the EPO is negative, an upper ridge pokes northward to Alaska and helps tap colder air from the Arctic regions. This forecast of the EPO telegraphs the changeable nature of the temps going forward.
Following the green line, the neutral look to start with accounts for the chill of this weekend, with the rise next week foretelling a milder spell, followed by a drop and colder weather thereafter, a sequence that mimics what we have experienced for quite a while.
The decade of the 10’s was the most active on record in terms of sizable coastal snowstorms in the East, but the first winter of the new decade has pitched a shutout to this point. That said, there are signs that the forces might conspire to bring the Northeast a late season dump during the colder dip in the EPO. Here is a look at the European forecast for the 7th of March. A man can dream can’t he?
Here Are The Regional Details
Northwest U.S./western Canada: Onshore flow from the Pacific will keep the snow coming, broken periodically by a short wavelength ridge passing through. Many powder days coming through mid-March.
Sierra: Some much needed snow is coming to this region early in the week of the 2nd. Another shot comes along about a week later.
Northern Rockies: I don’t see a whopper on the horizon, but a moderate snowfall will come along every few days in the next two weeks
Central and southern Rockies: Light to moderate snow event 3rd-5th followed by upper level ridging and bluebird skies late next week.
Midwest: Lake effect snow early in snowbelt areas. Clipper systems bring additional snow during EPO dip.
Northeast/Quebec: Back and forth temperature ride continues into mid-March. Snowfall highly storm track/elevation dependent. Some signs of coastal storm around March 6-7 starting to show up.
The Daly Chutes At Deer Valley
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Want Steep? Chute 4 Has Steep.
Chute 4 from the cornice. You ready? Credit: FeedTheHabit
Deer Valley Resort in Park City, UT has a reputation for catering to its clientele. Aside from the great food and fabulous customer service, it pampers skiers with groomed perfection and valet service, Yet, the resort is often dismissed by hard core skiers who feel that there is nothing on the mountain that would interest them.
To those folks I simply say, ”Go to the Daly Chutes off the Empire Express Chair.” Riding the chair, the chutes are visible to your left. As you exit the chair to your left, you make your way down the Orion Trail until you see the signs for The Daly Bowl and then an upward climb/traverse to the cornice on top of the Daly Chutes area.
Depending on the weather and the condition of the snow that is blown into the bowl area, the openings can be varied. Sometimes only a few chutes (which are numbered) are open and you must choose the correct ones as you stand at the top of the windblown and steep cornice.
Last week I chose Chute 4 twice, and, as I dropped in to the windblown snow, I immediately began a series of steep jump turns down the throat of the chute. Coming up on an exposed rock section, I veered to the right and finished in a wide open bowl area that was strewn with debris from avalanche blasting the day before.
After weaving through the large snow chunks and into the trees, the chicane of seldom used tight trails eventually brought me out in plain view of the Empire Lodge.
The chutes are all skiable and if you can manage the roller coaster trail through the woods on the way over to the bowl area and eventually to the top of the cornice, you will be treated to a selection of some steep but manageable terrain that definitely quiets the naysayers.
In addition to the challenging terrain of the Daly Bowl and Chute area, if you make your way all the way over to skier’s left of the resort, you can access the Sultan, Wasatch, and Mayflower chairs and experience some fast and steep groomers.
The signature run is Stein’s Run named after the legendary Stein Eriksen who was the Director of Skiing at Deer Valley for many years and an Olympic and World Championship medalist. Usually this area is quiet, and you have free rein to rip GS turns to your heart’s content, another plus for those who think that Deer Valley is not challenging.
All in all, a word to advanced skiers would be that although the terrain at Deer Valley does not rival Jackson Hole, Alta, or other areas with challenging expert terrain, the Daly Chutes will not bore you, and you definitely have to pay attention on your way down any of the selections.
Don’t knock it until you have tried it. Seniors get the benefit of a $125.00 lift ticket on certain days compared to the usual $209.00 tab. And of course the Ikon Pass is accepted at Deer Valley.
Check out a video trip down Chute 4 from Deer Valley.
This Week In SeniorsSkiing.com (Feb. 14th)
[Editor Note: SeniorsSkiing.com is asking our readers to contribute to support our online magazine. Yes, we have grown in the number of subscribers and advertisers. But our expenses have also grown. You can help us defray some of these expenses by helping us out with a donation.]
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Notes From A NH Ski Trip, Mystery Water Color, Weekly Weather, Jack Frost Senior Program, Avalanche Warning, Cal Safety Day, Againer Review, OR/SIA Show Wrap.
We’re up in Franconia, New Hampshire for the week, skiing and sort of vacationing. From this adventure, come many observations we’d like to share.
- Stopping at the New England Ski Museum, either the new North Conway branch or at headquarters at the foot of the Cannon Mt. tram, is definitely a way to get into the skiing mood for the week. If you are lucky, you will run into staff member Ted Laliberte at North Conway who graciously explained some exhibits and showed us United We Ski, a documentary about truly little ski hills around NH and Vermont that rely on community support and Yankee ingenuity to provide affordable skiing to local kids and families. Entrance is free, the staff helpful and friendly, the exhibits riveting.
- Deciding to not head out to one of the local ski hills on your first day of your ski vacation because it is 1) wicked cold, 2) blowing like stink, 3) Sunday tickets are too pricey anyway is okay. Getting up late and going exploring is just fine.
Bethlehem NH artist co-op boutique.
- Speaking of exploring, this corner of NH has a collection of antique stores from high quality to honorable junk. This is a fine alternative to spending money on lift tickets on a overly crowded, cold, and windy day. No guilt. Check out the town of Bethlehem for starters.
Schilling Brewery is a magnet for young and old in Littleton, NH
Thayers since 1847 at the heart of Littleton, NH
- Franconia, North Conway, Lincoln, even Bartlett are the notable ski towns around here, catering to the weekend warriors from MA, CT, and points there around, as well as the condo retirees. Go a bit farther up I-93 and you come to the old, formerly-down-at-the-heels-now-experiencing-a-renaissance town of Littleton. We were surprised to find Schilling’s, an artisan brewery and restaurant filled with young and hip people, a Main Street with artist co-ops, boutiques, vintage clothing stores, refugees from LA and NYC running interesting and inviting businesses. Stop at the National Historic Landmark Thayers Hotel (1843) on Main Street to see the list of celebs who have stayed there in its 177 year history. Chang Thai is a restaurant on Main Street not to be missed.
- At 2:00 pm, the base lodge at the local resort starts to clear out. Is that our imagination? People start at 9:30-10:00 am, stop for lunch, and are gone by 2:00?
Alien abduction museum in Lincoln, NH, close to the scene of the incident.
- In 1961, Betty and Barney Hill were driving at night on Route 3 in Lincoln, NH, close to Loon Mountain, when a bright light filled their car. Afterward, their vivid dreams were drawn out through hypnosis, revealing, they claim, that they were abducted by aliens who experimented on their bodies and returned them to their vehicle. There’s a museum with articles, memorabilia, and videos in a gas station very close to the spot where they claim the incident started.
- We declare Bretton Woods, NH’s largest ski resort, to also be among the most friendly to seniors. The week day walk-up ticket price for seniors is $32. Down the road, Attitash charges seniors $63 mid-week, Loon is $79-86, day-dependent, and Cannon is $60, any day for us guys. Only Waterville Valley, also just down the road, offers a $31 senior ticket on non-holiday mid-weeks. Thank you, Bretton Woods and Waterville. We’re going to visit WV next time.
- The better the condition of the snow, the better skier you are. Discuss.
This Week
Ted, you do not want to meet this on your bluebird, outback ski day.
Harriet Wallis writes a strongly worded letter to her nephew Ted about the reality of avalanches and the mortal danger they represent. Last season, 25 skiers were lost to avalanches, this season, the toll is 13. This is a real and present danger. Tell your loved ones to be prepared.
SeniorsSkiing.com is always looking for resorts that offer something special to their long-time senior customers. PA’s Jack Frost has a special, Wednesday morning program for seniors that includes lessons, lectures, and lunch does just that. Thanks to Bill Runner for connecting us with this news story from the Wilkes-Barre Times Leader that explains how a group of senior folks can work with a resort to come up with a program that works for everyone.
Yes, Suzy Chafee was the fast-moving woman in last week’s Mystery Glimpse, and yes, she was barreling down Fountain Mt, the famous Mt. Snow attraction. Apparently, it was a photo shoot as there are several similar shots of her. And thanks again to Peak Resort’s and its wonderful archive for the pic. This week’s photo comes from the New England Ski Museum. You’ll probably easily guess where, but what about who the artist is.
Klaus and Jon and the SeniorsSkiing.com sticker
Co-Publisher Jon Weisberg reports on his visit to the OR/SIA Show in Denver last week and his sortie to Winter Park to demo some new skis. The two hottest new items at the show: Wearable warmers, and CBD for what ails you.
San Francisco-based SeniorsSkiing.com correspondent Rose Marie Cleese reports on Ski California’s Safety Day, featuring educational events and demonstrations up and down the state. As we are learning from looking at reports of and comments about ski accidents, safety education is an important part of reducing injury potential. How effective that is is another story.
We publish a review of the Againer, an exoskelton-computer device that takes the pressure off knees. Our review was pleased. Check out his report, “I Felt Like I Skied One Run Not Eight.”
Finally, the Skiing Weatherman reports on conditions for next week. There will be more storms coming along; it’s just a question of timing.
Thanks for reading SeniorsSkiing.com. Please tell your friends, and remember, there are more of us every day and we aren’t going away.
As of Feb 12, 2020. Thanks, Joe Durzo.
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